The Virginia gubernatorial race has tightened in the campaign’s closing stretch, with Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA) trailing Democrat Abigail Spanberger by just 3 percentage points in a new survey. An A2 Insights poll conducted from Friday to Sunday puts Spanberger at 48% and Earle-Sears at 45%, the narrowest margin reported in months.

The A2 Insights result contrasts with several earlier polls this month that showed Spanberger with a larger advantage. For example, a Sept. 8-14 survey from Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center found Spanberger leading 52%-40% among likely voters, while a Sept. 9 release from Virginia Commonwealth University’s Wilder School reported a 49%-40% edge among registered voters. Taken together, the numbers suggest a competitive race with late movement toward the Republican nominee, even as most public polling still shows the Democrat ahead.

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In July, the Earle-Sears campaign demoted its manager and parted ways with its political director, a shake-up that changed the trajectory of the race.

Earle-Sears’s campaign has undergone high-profile changes as Republicans seek to replicate Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R-VA) 2021 path in the suburbs. The Republican nominee has since been gaining ground at a rapid pace, making more media appearances and targeting northern Virginia school board meetings where cultural and education issues have become flashpoints. Her campaign is focusing heavily on Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William counties — the same battlegrounds that helped fuel Youngkin’s victory through the parents’ rights movement.

At the same time, videos of Spanberger avoiding reporter questions on transgender bathroom policies have gone viral. Earle-Sears has repeatedly amplified those clips, using press availabilities to contrast her willingness to engage with voters against Spanberger’s avoidance.

While Earle-Sears has leaned into media appearances and education policy flashpoints in northern Virginia, Spanberger has continued to campaign on cost of living and public safety. Recent weeks have also brought Earle-Sears a financial boost: BET co-founder Robert L. Johnson contributed $500,000 following an Arlington school board incident in which a Democratic activist targeted the Republican nominee with a racist sign during an Arlington County school board meeting.

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Still, Democrats point to endorsements and earlier polling leads as evidence that the race remains theirs to lose. Spanberger, a former CIA officer and three-term congresswoman, recently secured the Virginia Police Benevolent Association’s backing and has consistently led in fundraising.

With early voting underway and Nov. 4 approaching, both campaigns are treating the commonwealth as a bellwether. The A2 Insights poll indicates a tightening contest, and the broader polling picture shows Spanberger ahead but with a smaller cushion than she enjoyed over the summer.