Preparing to implement sweeping new tariffs, the Trump administration should consider an under-appreciated victim of the trade wars: America’s quantum technology leadership. Without swift carveouts for critical quantum inputs and a domestic supply chain strategy, the United States risks surrendering a strategic edge that the first Trump administration worked hard to cultivate.

Quantum computers, sensors, and networks that harness subatomic physics could dramatically transform fields from drug discovery to resource exploration to communications. This might bring vast economic benefits and new battlefield and cyber capabilities to reshape global power. The long-awaited quantum revolution is underway: sensors are beginning to be adopted in military platforms for high-precision, resilient navigation amid GPS vulnerabilities, and several companies have unveiled computing breakthroughs. Major advances toward practical applications are expected within three to five years.

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In his first term, President Donald Trump rightly made quantum a priority, spurring a national strategy and unprecedented R&D investments. But despite boasting the largest concentration of quantum organizations, America’s lead remains fragile. China dominates in quantum communications and is rapidly closing the gap in computing and sensing capabilities. Meanwhile, Europe just unveiled a revamped quantum strategy, aiming for global leadership by 2030. Washington must keep its eyes on the prize: the first mover in quantum will unlock defense and commercial capabilities, secure emerging markets, and attract top talent and investments — self-reinforcing gains that could cement leadership for years to come.

Yet just as the quantum race intensifies, U.S. tariffs are throwing a wrench into America’s quantum innovation engine. For a fledgling industry constrained by tight budgets and a thin, global supplier base spanning Europe, China, Japan, and more, the current 10% baseline tariffs and higher duties on certain countries are already imposing crippling costs, multi-month procurement bottlenecks, and potentially irreversible setbacks in technology development.

U.S.-based quantum companies, component suppliers, and researchers depend on critical materials with no domestic sources, such as lithium niobate and holmium copper, as well as expensive hardware. Even a 10% duty on these inputs can equal the annual salary of several employees, forcing firms to raise prices and lose competitiveness in a market further strained by retaliatory tariffs from countries like China.

Operational overhead is also rising as startups divert even technical experts to handle shifting tariff classifications and compliance requirements. These pressures layer on other recent policy hurdles sapping limited resources, including the Biden administration’s export controls on quantum computing, and ongoing uncertainty over federal contracts and foreign talent visas.

Mounting costs and bureaucracy are derailing U.S. quantum innovation. Struggling to secure critical inputs, quantum organizations are downsizing, delaying, or outright canceling projects, including those for defense clients. Research labs are reallocating funding away from graduate student hires and cutting-edge work in quantum engineering and materials science. Startups confront longer development cycles and waning investor confidence, threatening shutdown for some.

Lacking the resilience of mature industries, tariff shocks threaten lasting harm to America’s quantum ecosystem: If complex technology development stalls, innovative companies go under, and rare talent slips away, recovery will be nearly impossible — handing dominance to foreign competitors eager to capitalize on America’s retreat.

Washington must act quickly on three fronts to steer America toward enduring quantum leadership. First, to prevent further delays in U.S. innovation, the administration should mirror its semiconductor strategy and enact swift tariff carveouts for essential quantum inputs. Concessions could be conditioned on commitments to invest in America and shift to U.S. suppliers when feasible.

Second, to bolster the domestic supply chain, the administration should work with Congress to embed targeted incentives in the upcoming reauthorization of the 2018 National Quantum Initiative Act. Low-interest loans, procurement contracts, and expanded foundry access could empower U.S. firms to scale production of critical materials and components.

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Finally, working with state governments to cultivate regional quantum hubs would leverage local strengths and guard against disruptions, as well as broaden talent pipelines and the domestic quantum economy, further reinforcing American competitiveness and resilience.

Washington has a narrow window to halt the erosion of America’s quantum edge. By coupling targeted tariff relief with domestic supply chain development, the administration can safeguard its quantum legacy and ensure the United States commands the economic and security gains of the coming quantum age.

Constanza M. Vidal Bustamante, Ph.D., is a Fellow leading quantum technology policy research at the Center for a New American Security, an independent bipartisan think tank in Washington, D.C.