Donald Trump is facing 91 charges across four criminal cases after his indictment in Georgia this week, and the Peach State now presents what may be the most realistic scenario for the former president and 2024 GOP front-runner landing in jail.
The charges among the four cases, two federal and two local, carry a total maximum sentence of more than 700 years in prison and hefty fines.
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In the two federal cases, the case in Florida related to classified documents and the case in Washington, D.C., related to the 2020 election, Trump could pardon himself if reelected, or another president could pardon him, relieving him of trials and erasing any convictions.
That option does not exist in the two local cases, the one in Georgia related to the 2020 election and the one in New York related to a 2016 hush money scheme.
New York
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg charged Trump in April with 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree, a Class E felony that local attorneys estimate can carry a prison sentence of one to four years per count.
The judge in the case, Juan Merchan, would be expected to weigh that Trump has no prior felony convictions, which could result in lighter penalties, such as probation and fines.
Critics of the case have described it as the weakest of the four criminal cases, in part because it deals with allegations of payments from six and seven years ago, which typically would fall outside the statute of limitations.
Andy McCarthy, a prominent Republican attorney, wrote of the indictment that it “fails to state a crime. Not once…but 34 times. On that ground alone the case should be dismissed.”
Merchan, who declined Trump's motion that he recuse himself from the case this week, set the trial to begin on March 25, 2024.
Florida
Special counsel Jack Smith charged Trump in Florida with 40 felonies that carry a maximum combined sentence of 450 years in jail. Dominating the indictment are 32 counts of willful retention of national defense information, violations of the Espionage Act.
U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, who was appointed by Trump, is overseeing the case, and some have speculated she could be sympathetic to the former president. Federal judges also have substantial sentencing discretion, and Trump will have the ability to file appeals wherever permissible.
At the same time, however, some legal experts have found the Florida case to be the least debatable.
Jonathan Turley, a law professor at George Washington University, told the Washington Examiner in an interview before the Georgia indictment was delivered that he believed the Florida case was “the most serious threat” to Trump.
“The charges in that case are based on established legal authority and a great deal of cited evidence,” he said. “It doesn't mean they can secure a conviction, but there are fewer controversies.”
Cannon set a trial in that case to begin May 20, 2024, and in the meantime, Trump is engaged in a testy back-and-forth with prosecutors over terms that will dictate how parties can review classified material in discovery.
Washington, DC
Special counsel Jack Smith charged Trump with four counts alleging he conspired to overturn the 2020 election illegally.
The case, based in deeply blue Washington, could result in a maximum sentence of 55 years in prison for conspiracy to defraud the United States and conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, among other charges.
U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is overseeing the case, has sentenced at least three dozen people involved in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and has garnered a reputation as a tough punisher.
The case is entirely novel, however, and Trump's defense team has already begun raising constitutional concerns about free speech infringement that prosecutors must overcome.
Chutkan set a trial start date of Jan. 2, 2024.
Georgia
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis charged Trump with 13 felonies in Georgia, but the most significant charge, a violation of the state’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, carries the toughest penalty of up to 20 years in prison.
The indictment, delivered by a grand jury on Monday, was broad, implicating 18 others by name and involving an additional 30 co-conspirators in issues across the state, including those related to voting machines, illegitimate electors, and more.
Other charges leveled against Trump in the case may carry minimum mandatory sentences, and if convicted, Trump does not have the luxury of hope for a federal or state pardon, at least not anytime soon.
In Georgia, a five-member board approves pardons, but the convict cannot apply for one until five years after his or her sentence is complete.
Willis gave Trump and the other 18 people charged in the case 10 days to turn themselves in, and all of them, according to a Fulton County sheriff, are expected to be temporarily booked in jail upon their surrender and have their mugshots taken.
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“It doesn’t matter your status. We’ll have a mugshot ready for you,” another Fulton sheriff told local reporters. “Unless somebody tells me differently, we are following our normal practices.”
Willis has signaled that she wants to try all 19 defendants together and has proposed an ambitious date of March 4, 2024, to begin that process.