White House officials say “DOGE dividend” checks will not cause inflation because the money would otherwise have been spent by the government.
“If we don’t spend government money and we give it back to people, then if they spend it all, you’re even,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said during the afternoon press briefing. “But they’re probably going to save a lot of it, in which case you’re reducing inflation.”
Washington has been buzzing since the Trump administration began talking about the so-called DOGE dividend earlier this week. The idea is to send 20% of any funding cuts the quasi-government agency makes back to taxpayers next summer, though a lot of questions remain about the proposal.
One question is whether such a move would cause inflation, as the stimulus-style checks evoke memories of the direct payments that went out during the pandemic. That spending took much of the blame for inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in 2022.
President Donald Trump and his team insist that will not be the case.
“When the government spends a lot, that’s what creates inflation,” Hassett added. “We learned that from [former President] Joe Biden. So if we reduce government spending, then that reduces inflation, and if you give people money, then they’re going to save a bunch of it. And when they save it, that also reduces demand and reduces inflation.”
Collins: On these potential checks you might send out, are you concerned that they could be inflationary?
— Acyn (@Acyn) February 20, 2025
Hassett: Absolutely not. Imagine if we don't spend government money and we give it back to the people. If they spend it all, you are even. They’re probably going to save it… pic.twitter.com/jJyYvGCrbx
Trump himself suggested Wednesday that another 20% of the money saved would go directly toward paying down the national debt, while White House policy adviser Stephen Miller said the remaining 60% could be forwarded to the following year’s budget, representing effective savings.
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Department of Government Efficiency leader Elon Musk has targeted cutting $2 trillion in spending, a goal most budget experts say is unrealistic. If that figure was reached, then $5,000 checks would reportedly go out to the roughly 79 million households that pay federal income taxes.
The checks wouldn’t go out until at least July 2026, when DOGE wraps up its mission, and they may also require Congressional approval.