The Department of Defense has announced its intent to restructure the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program, one part of the United States’s nuclear triad, due to an unexpected significant increase in spending.
In January, the department informed Congress about the much higher cost than it had expected as required under the Nunn-McCurdy statute, which mandates the Defense Department inform Congress any time one of its program’s cost balloons by 25% or more over the current Acquisition Program Baseline.
Dr. William LaPlante, the department’s secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, announced on Monday that he has determined the Sentinel program meets the requirements to allow it to continue, though he added, “It is important to note that this certification does not indicate business as usual.”
Any program that triggers the Pentagon to inform Congress will be disbanded unless the secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment certifies to Congress that the program meets very specific criteria, including being essential to national security without alternatives that could provide acceptable capability at less cost.
The department’s modified Sentinel program estimate is now $140.9 billion, an increase of 81% compared to estimates from September 2020.
The Nunn-McCurdy review for this program found that the majority of the excess cost is coming from the Sentinel’s command and launch segment, including the launch facilities, launch centers, and the process, among other things.
“The knowledge of the ground-based segment of this program was insufficient, in hindsight, to have a high-quality cost estimate,” he acknowledged.
Defense officials do not believe the cost increase will have an impact for the next five years or so, meaning the department has time to figure out if it will cut other programs to allow for the increased costs of the Sentinel program.
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LaPlante also said the department expects “a delay of several years” because he directed the Air Force to come up with “a plan to restructure the program.” He also rescinded Sentinel’s Milestone B approval, which comes at the point at which an acquisition program is authorized to enter the engineering and manufacturing development phase.
Gen. David Allvin, chief of staff of the Air Force, added, “We face an evolving and complex security environment marked by two major nuclear powers that are strategic competitors and potential adversaries. While I have confidence in our legacy systems today, it is imperative that we modernize of our nuclear triad. A restructured Sentinel program is essential to ensure we remain best postured to address future threats.”