Democrats like President Joe Biden , and they overwhelmingly approve of the job he’s doing. But many don’t want him to run again. They worry about his age and incumbent fatigue in a time of public pessimism. They have another concern: Donald Trump beats Biden in three of the last five national polls. 

The latest Economist/YouGov survey finds that only 43% of Democrats want Biden to run. Worse, just 14% of independents — those voters who often decide elections and, in some states, can vote in Democratic primaries — want him to seek another term. Four recent polls show Biden winning an average of only 36% of Democratic primary voters nationwide. A Harvard-Harris poll finds that a quarter of Democrats have doubts about Biden’s mental fitness, and nearly two-thirds of independents do as well.

Though reluctant to express it, many Democratic voters, elected officials, and donors are uneasy about Biden running again. In truth, the party is now beginning to face the hard reality of reelecting a president who would serve in office until he’s 86 years old. In any case, it takes somebody to beat somebody, and there is no major Democrat now running against the president for renomination. But the question remains whether one will.

Some California politicos believe their suave, ambitious governor, Gavin Newsom, would run if he thought he could win. The former San Francisco mayor and current chief executive of the nation’s largest state has a heavy-duty record of winning elections and raising money. Since 2018, Newsom won the governorship twice and beat a recall attempt – all by landslide margins. He claims he’s not running for president, although he continues to visit key states.

Keep in mind that two Democrats are already challenging Biden. One is author Marianne Williamson, who ran last time and won only a smattering of votes. The other is Robert Kennedy, Jr., the environmentalist and anti-vaccination advocate. He’s the son of the former U.S. attorney general and New York senator who was assassinated during a 1968 presidential run. Kennedy’s gold-plated name draws attention, but will attention translate into votes?

Most pundits believe Biden will run again, and some expect a declaration as early as this month. But if Biden doesn’t run, there’s no obvious Democratic favorite to take his place. But there’s a long list of possibilities: the current vice president (Kamala Harris); two Cabinet members (Pete Buttigieg, Gina Raimondo); six governors (Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Phil Murphy, J.B. Pritzker, Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper); five U.S. senators (Amy Klobuchar, Raphael Warnock, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker); and a variety of others, such as U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and former Mayor Mitch Landrieu. 

If Biden does run, it’s likely none of these Democrats would pick up the torch against him. However, if his poll ratings are so low that he appears vulnerable to any Republican challenger, especially Trump, there could be a serious effort to ease him aside.

There are two examples of Democratic presidents being nudged out. In 1952, Harry Truman wanted to run for a second full term but lost the New Hampshire primary to Tennessee Sen. Estes Kefauver. Truman then abandoned a reelection bid. In 1968, Lyndon Johnson ran behind expectations in the New Hampshire primary against Minnesota Sen. Eugene McCarthy and quickly dropped out of contention. 

Is there a modern version of McCarthy or Kefauver? A single insurgent wouldn’t likely beat Biden but could expose weaknesses and draw a stronger Democrat into the race. That happened in 1968 when the first Robert Kennedy entered the fray against LBJ after McCarthy had cleared the path.

Republicans have fireworks and Democrats have quiet doubts. Neither nomination is yet a sure thing.

Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst, polling expert and writer. He authored the book Running for Office and publishes a national newsletter on polls and public opinion, LunchtimePolitics.com.