In June 2022, the Supreme Court handed down a landmark decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization. The decision was a major win for pro-life Americans.
After nearly half a century, the abortion landscape changed as Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey were overturned. Instantly, the main goal of a pro-life movement two generations in the making was realized. Just as suddenly, a new mountain of difficulty replaced the triumph: changing hearts and minds. Dobbs not only altered political and social discourse but deeply affected electoral outcomes in both the 2022 midterm elections and the 2023 off-year races. Some who gave the impression they were prepared for such a day have shown the opposite to be true.
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The sexual revolution of the 1960s that gave way to the 1973 Roe decision introduced widespread, cultural acceptance of consequence-free sex. If a sexual encounter resulted in pregnancy, abortion was there to fix the "problem." Unwanted pregnancies and unwanted parenthood wouldn't derail life. These were the promises made then. Those promises have remained through the decades, perpetuated by an abortion industry that preys on the vulnerable both inside and outside the womb. Abortion grew to become a culturally acceptable form of reproductive healthcare. Campaigns, such as Shout Your Abortion, work to remove the stigma and normalize what is quite literally the taking of a human life. Support for abortion has remained steady through the last 50 years. The post-Dobbs world is fraught with problems. Viewing abortion as a medical necessity continues. That was always going to be the result, no matter which way the Supreme Court ruled.
It's foolish to believe any sort of legal decision will shift established cultural "norms" overnight. The beauty of Dobbs is that it brought an end to the scourge of a constitutional "right" to abortion. Along with slavery, the love affair with abortion has always been one of our nation's greatest sins. Yet Dobbs carries with it a heavy burden. While federalism is a positive aspect of our political system, it can be a hard pill to swallow when put into practice. An exhausted pro-life movement often viewed an end to Roe and Casey as some sort of ultimate finish line. But that end was truly just the beginning of an expanded, consistent, broad campaign at the grassroots level. What pro-life voters have seen in the most recent elections is a motivated abortion movement energized by a brand-new role: being the underdog. The highest of pro-life highs has been met with unabashed abortion enthusiasm. It is unnerving. And if pro-life people are not careful, it can take the joy out of the best thing to happen to the movement since its work began.
The midterm elections were the first real test in a post-Roe world. As expected, abortion supporters turned out in full force in multiple states in an attempt to protect or expand access to abortion. Republicans braced for retaliation and received it. There is something to the idea that to voters on both sides of the aisle, Dobbs represents a figurative end to abortion. But there is no outright ban on abortion. Still, a lingering fear on the left side of the aisle that abortion will soon be unavailable carries weight at the ballot box. On election night, five states, Kentucky, Michigan, California, Vermont, and Montana, passed measures in favor of abortion. They joined Kansan voters who overwhelmingly voted against a pro-life amendment to the Kansas Constitution that August. The ballot measure in Kansas was scheduled before the Dobbs decision. While there's no way to know just how much Dobbs affected that vote, the August results indicated clear momentum brought on by the sheer rage of a world without Roe. The vote was a bellwether: Problems were ahead.
In the lead-up to the midterm elections, Republicans were eagerly expecting a red wave. The Democrats were bracing for defeat. But the story is nuanced. Take, for example, what happened in Kentucky. The 2022 ballot measure determined whether there was a right to abortion for citizens of the state. If approved, the language added would have declared no right to abortion. In the end, 52.3% voted against it, while 47.7% voted with the pro-life side. Still, when it came to individual races in Kentucky, voters overwhelmingly went with Republican candidates. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) comfortably beat challenger Charles Booker, a Democrat in favor of abortion access. And of six Kentucky House races, the Democratic Party candidate only succeeded in winning one. How did a state that rejected a pro-life constitutional measure also elect mostly Republicans on the same night? Perhaps because for voters who lean pro-life, eliminating a "right" to abortion is too extreme, even for them. In fact, a large number of voters don't support full bans. A poll conducted this summer, approximately one year after Dobbs, showed 73% of adults say abortion should be allowed within the first six weeks compared to 23% who say it should not be allowed during that time. Those numbers move to 58% and 37%, respectively, in states that have some of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country. And among Republican respondents, comparable percentages are 56% and 41%, respectively.
In 2022, Republicans won back the House of Representatives, and Democrats kept control of the Senate. The de facto leader of the Republicans did the party no favors. Before any votes were cast, former President Donald Trump had the audacity to say, "Well, I think if they win, I should get all the credit. If they lose, I should not be blamed at all, but it’ll probably be just the opposite." After the disappointing turn, the former president went on the attack: "It wasn’t my fault that the Republicans didn’t live up to expectations in the MidTerms. ... It was the ’abortion issue,’ poorly handled by many Republicans, especially those that firmly insisted on No Exceptions, even in the case of Rape, Incest, or Life of the Mother, that lost large numbers of Voters." His explanations routinely discount his own negative influence. Republican candidates endorsed by Trump largely did not do well, thanks in part to the continued, unsubstantiated claims about a stolen 2020 election. It is disappointing to see the man who helped usher in Dobbs view it as an electoral problem, all while ignoring his own major contributions to his party's defeats.
Trump deserves credit for nominating justices to the Supreme Court who would eventually vote to overturn Roe and Casey. But it's important to give Trump nothing more than conditional praise for a political transaction. Despite claims from his most ardent supporters, he did what any Republican president would have done with a similar set of circumstances. Trump himself is not any sort of pro-life hero. It is wrong to look toward him as a leader on abortion policy. This is true regardless of the history-making nature of the decision. Furthermore, there is no need for any Republican to apologize for or point to Dobbs as a problem due to present or future electoral consequences. Dobbs was and continues to be a decision that righted a major legal and moral wrong. That Trump and others are disgruntled over how it affects elections or their legacies is no reason to disparage the victory.
A year after the midterm elections came another round of election setbacks. On Nov. 7, voters in Ohio passed a constitutional amendment protecting abortion. The amendment does not allow for any restrictions on abortion before fetal viability, which is roughly considered around the 23- or 24-week mark of pregnancy. The passage of the amendment is proof of extreme enthusiasm among those who support abortion. The fervor is born out of post-Dobbs panic. But as Nicole Russell wrote in the Washington Examiner, the Ohio results are not surprising. Neither are they indicative of a true landslide: "The amendment passed with over 56% of the vote, and about 3.8 million cast ballots in this race, according to local news sources. While that’s a large turnout for a nonpresidential year, to put it in perspective, there are nearly 8 million registered voters in Ohio, and 6 million voted in 2020. This means only one-quarter of Ohio’s registered voters passed the referendum, hardly a majority by any stretch." That truth may not be a comfort, but it certainly allows room for change. And that space is what the pro-life community needs and can work with. Ohio was the biggest abortion news on the off-year election night. But there were other noticeable abortion access wins. In Kentucky's gubernatorial race, Democrat and abortion supporter Andy Beshear won a second term. In Virginia, Democrats gained majority control of the General Assembly. The Democratic Party wins have energized members to look toward 2024 as having the ability for more upsets.
In the wake of frustrating elections, pro-life voters are left to wonder if Dobbs is nothing more than a hollow victory. I submit to you that it is not.
On the Republican agenda, there is nothing as important as recognizing and protecting the right to exist. Other serious areas of concern, such as national security, immigration, the economy, education, healthcare, taxes, and infrastructure, mean little if people disregard life in the womb. Some may suggest we shift our attention away from abortion to saving the culture from leftism. This is a mistake. It is far too easy to relegate unseen, unknown, and unborn humans to a lesser category than what is placed right in front of us. And if Republicans do that, how are we better than our ideological opponents? We should not leave the most basic and precious of rights vulnerable to destruction. If anything, disinterest in abortion allows leftism to flourish. Giving up is not an option just because the task is hard or elections are disappointing. Those surprised at the realities of a post-Roe world where abortion is still considered a necessity have only themselves to blame for the shock.
Celebrating the end of Roe and Casey remains a good thing. Both were legally and morally appalling. Our nation is better off now that they've been dismissed to the dustbin of history. And there are numbers to prove it.
A recent study done by the Institute of Labor Economics showed an increase of approximately 32,000 births in the first half of 2023. Reportedly, "between one-fifth and one-fourth of women living in states with bans — who may have otherwise sought an abortion — did not get one." While there are many women who travel where abortion is legal or seek medication to end their pregnancies, thousands of others have carried their children to term. These lives are worth more than temporary electoral gains. They're worth infinitely more than cheap narratives or promises spouted by abortion proponents. Far more than difficult elections, these thousands represent the beginning of the post-Roe era. Yes, it's an era with challenges and uphill battles, but the rewards far outweigh the struggles. The rewards are new lives.
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Still, it won't be easy going forward. Abortion exists and is still erroneously sold to women as the ticket to a better, less complicated life. In response, pro-life voters should continue to opt for unapologetic pro-life candidates. Pro-life voters should also remain confident in the cause of life despite complaints of election loss from bitter politicians. The message of the pro-life movement must remain strong and clear: Both the unborn and their mothers have infinite worth. Pregnancy does not mean an end to either the life of the baby or the woman. And circumstances of conception don't confer value.
Dobbs did not instantly create a culture of life in the United States. In so many ways, the post-Roe reality for pro-life people means a much tougher sell at the ballot box. But if anything, a movement that advanced the cause of life for nearly half a century under Roe should know what to expect. Things are just getting started.
Kimberly Ross (@SouthernKeeks) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner magazine and Beltway Confidential blog. She is a freelance writer and mother of two.