In order to maintain their credibility, terrorist threat advisories should be supported by specific or generalized information that supports their being issued. That doesn’t appear to have been the case with the State Department travel advisory issued on Friday.
These advisories are not regularly issued. But this one was notable. It advised “U.S. citizens overseas to exercise increased caution. The Department of State is aware of the increased potential for foreign terrorist organization-inspired violence against LGBTQI+ persons and events and advises U.S. citizens overseas to exercise increased caution.” It continued, “U.S. citizens should stay alert in locations frequented by tourists, including Pride celebrations and venues frequented by LGBTQI+ persons.”
This follows a May 10 warning by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security concerning “foreign terrorist organizations or their supporters potential targeting of LGBTQIA+-related events and venues … Foreign terrorist organizations or supporters may seek to exploit increased gatherings associated with the upcoming June 2024 Pride Month.” The difference between the two advisories is that where the FBI-DHS note only the “potential” that terrorists “may” target LGBT events, the State Department warns of an “increased potential” and calls on travelers to exercise “increased caution” and “stay alert.” Considering assessment language employed in U.S. government intelligence analysis, the State Department’s strong implication is that it has new intelligence reporting indicating an increased threat to LGBT events abroad.
Is that the case?
Perhaps not. When asked whether there was any specific or even generalized intelligence to support this advisory, a person familiar with the latest intelligence reporting told the Washington Examiner, “Nothing. There was no rationale for sending it out.”
Three other sources told the Washington Examiner that the currently predominant terrorist threat streams actually center on more generalized mass casualty Salafi-Jihadist attack plots and aspirations, predominantly from the Islamic State syndicate based out of Afghanistan. Other threat streams include a terrorist infiltration of the United States via the Mexican border and continued Iranian assassination plots against U.S. persons. Terrorist attacks, inspired by the Israel-Hamas war, against Jewish targets are also a concern. Indeed, I understand that the specific threat stream pertaining to Jewish Americans traveling abroad is far more substantial than that pertaining to LGBT Americans traveling abroad.
To be clear, Salafi-Jihadists have a vehement hatred for LGBT Americans. ISIS inspired the 2016 Pulse nightclub attack in Orlando, Florida, and other disrupted jihadist plots underline that LGBT events and persons are targets for these fanatics. Al Qaeda once lamented how President Barack Obama had lit “up the walls of the White House with their perverted rainbow symbols indicating that they have adopted these morals.” The FBI and DHS were right to point out this reality in their May 10 note. The problem with the State Department advisory is that it suggests an intelligence assessment that does not appear to exist. Asked by Spectrum News why the advisory was issued, a senior department official, Rena Bitter, simply stated, “Pride month is coming up. We thought it would be prudent just to get the word out for people who are traveling abroad.”
Again, however, the problem here is the State Department’s language and implication. And in this case, the State Department’s message is not educational but instead sensational. It indicated that the U.S. had intelligence pointing to developing or active attack plots targeting American LGBT tourists abroad. And as of Friday, at least, that just doesn’t appear to have been the case.
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Asked about this discrepancy, a State Department spokesperson told the Washington Examiner: “We take seriously our commitment to provide U.S. citizens with clear, timely, and reliable information about every country in the world so they can make informed travel decisions.” The spokesperson then reiterated the original advisory without offering any further guidance.
The risk here is threefold. First, that the State Department’s threat advisory system is being misused in a manner that undermines its longer-term credibility. Second, that the department will spark excess fear by U.S. tourists who should be prudent but otherwise deserve to have a good time. Third, that the counterterrorism intelligence process is being politicized. None of these situations would be acceptable.