A quarter of all independent expenditures in the 2024 election cycle, $20.2 million, has targeted Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), more than has been spent in either positive or negative independent expenditures for former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden combined.
Trump, the Republican front-runner, was hit with just $8.1 million of negative independent expenditures directed toward him, according to data compiled by Republican consultant Rob Pyers. Biden, the incumbent president and front-runner for the 2024 Democratic nomination, was attacked with $9.2 million of independent expenditures.
UP FOR DEBATE: TRUMP, DESANTIS, AND OTHER 2024 GOP HOPEFULS' STANCE ON SECOND AMENDMENT
“The top folks in polling always attract the most negative advertising. However, few Republican candidates are willing to go negative on Trump — so DeSantis ends up taking the most fire," Republican pollster Doug Usher said.
Republican strategist Doug Heye came to a similar conclusion. "Most Republican campaigns, or those with funds, have determined that DeSantis is their biggest obstacle, thus the spending against him," he explained. As for why they have opted against negatively targeting Trump, he said, "If candidates aren't going to go out of their way to criticize Trump every time he's indicted, you sure aren't going to see funds spent attacking him."
According to fellow GOP strategist Susan Del Percio, "They're afraid to go after Trump." So the next logical target becomes DeSantis, who is in second place in the Republican primary polls. "If you're not going to go after Donald Trump, you go after Ron DeSantis because they're all trying to be No. 2," she said.
Others, however, suggested that the focus on DeSantis is more of an effort to define a lower-profile politician than Biden and Trump.
Political scientist and University of South Carolina professor David Darmofal noted the data "speaks to a desire to define DeSantis, who is relatively less well-known nationally than either Biden or Trump, negatively early. This reflects an oft-used political strategy to define one's opponent negatively before they have a chance to define themselves for voters."
While DeSantis has so far borne the brunt of negative independent expenditures, he has also been the recipient of $11.2 million in positive spending, supporting his bid for the presidency. This is more than any other candidate, beating out Trump's $850,195 and Biden's $1,731,588.
GOP strategist Ron Bonjean agreed that the expenditures are part of an effort to define DeSantis early for voters. “DeSantis would be the front-runner if Trump wasn’t in the presidential race," he said. "That’s why outside groups are spending so much money in a rush to define him early, in case he ends up being the Republican nominee.”
All but $5 million of the $79.9 million spent on independent expenditures in the 2024 cycle was spent specifically on the primary elections.
Del Percio explained, "The Republicans aren't going to spend time attacking Biden right now when they're trying to win the nomination," in reference to the amount spent against Biden.
According to the data from Pyers, nearly all of the negative independent expenditures against DeSantis came from Make America Great Again Inc., a super PAC supporting Trump. Only $45,712 came from other groups.
The PAC spent several months focused on attacking DeSantis in 2023, even before he entered the 2024 race. In a series of ads, MAGA Inc. hit DeSantis for his stance in Congress on Medicare and Social Security, allegedly eating pudding with his fingers, and tax policy. The PAC noted that DeSantis's polling average fell between April and mid-June when the ads were running.
Now, the Trump-aligned PAC says it is focused on Biden. In a new ad launched last week, the group attacks the president and his son, Hunter Biden. According to the ad, the Justice Department under Biden is covering for him and his family while targeting Trump.
For DeSantis's campaign and the super PAC supporting his White House bid, the attacks prove that he should be the nominee in 2024.
"Republicans, Democrats, and the legacy media are united in their full-on assault of Ron DeSantis because he is the only candidate who can beat Joe Biden," according to the campaign's communications director, Andrew Romeo.
"We know they will never call him the winner, and we fully expect the onslaught of attacks to reach a new level on the debate stage next week, but taking arrows on behalf of the American people is nothing new for DeSantis. It doesn't matter how much they come after him. Ron DeSantis will never back down," he added.
Never Back Down, the PAC working to support DeSantis's presidential run, spokeswoman Jess Szymanski noted that "unprecedented amounts" are being spent against the Florida governor so far. This is "because they know he is the only candidate who can beat both Trump and Joe Biden," she said.
"There’s a reason the only person they talk about is Ron DeSantis. They fear DeSantis because not only will he win, but he will actually break the swamp, hold elitists and the bureaucracy accountable, and restore American greatness," she further claimed. "Even with this false smear campaign, DeSantis is standing strong and has the message and organization to overtake Trump and make Biden’s beach vacation permanent.”
Republican strategist Chip Felkel attributed the money spent against DeSantis to his position in the polls, where he is "perceived to be Trump's biggest challenge." Also, he suggested, "his positions designed to go super hard right to capture support from the base, made/make him a target for Trump supporters and for other groups from the middle or left."
"Some of his positions and fights he has created, which clearly haven't moved the needle in terms of polls, make him a desirable and deserving target," he said.
DeSantis's positioning of himself to the right of Trump failed to provide a bump for him in the polls. And now, after a publicized campaign reboot that involved cutting a third of his staff and ultimately changing campaign managers, he is making appearances on CNN, NBC News, and CNBC. The change in media strategy could signal an attempt from the Florida Republican to appeal to more centrist Republicans and independent voters.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
This move is further encouraged by hotel entrepreneur Robert Bigelow, the largest individual donor to Never Back Down.
"He does need to shift to get to moderates. He'll lose if he doesn't. ... Extremism isn't going to get you elected," he told Reuters this month.