As Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) looks to turn the GOP base away from former President Donald Trump, one of his most potent arguments may be his head-to-head polling against the Democratic incumbent.
DeSantis is struggling to make up a massive polling gap against Trump, but often fares better against President Joe Biden, the ultimate opponent for the eventual Republican nominee. He's made that point himself, saying he's the man to expand the base and win back the White House.
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"We think we can win a really strong general election victory, expand the Republican majorities in the House and Senate, and then actually be able to bring all these issues to fruition," he told the Washington Examiner's Anna Giaritelli during a stop in Rio Grande, Texas. "And when you bring the issues to fruition and actually get the job done and deliver results, that, at the end of the day, I think, is what people really, really want to see."
Recent polls suggest DeSantis would in fact be a better choice than Trump to win a strong general election victory.
An NBC News poll found DeSantis beating Biden by six points in swing states, while Trump trailed Biden by two points.
Similarly, polling from Public Opinion Strategies showed DeSantis defeating Biden in a matchup while Trump loses to Biden in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, three crucial states that will help determine the next president of the United States and control of Congress.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) caused a stir this week when he made remarks that seemed to question whether Trump was the best candidate for the general.
“Can he win that election? Yeah he can,” McCarthy said when asked about Trump’s 2024 prospects during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday. “The question is, is he the strongest to win the election — I don’t know that answer.”
However, McCarthy later walked those comments back, saying Trump is "Biden’s strongest political opponent" and referencing yet another poll, which showed Trump leading Biden in a hypothetical match-up if both leaders secure their party's nominations next year.
That poll, conducted by Morning Consult, showed Trump beating Biden for the first time since the pollster began comparing the candidates last year.
The bigger problem for DeSantis, who is much younger than his chief opponents and the only other Republican drawing double-digit support, is that he's struggling to make up for the huge gap between himself and Trump.
The same NBC poll saw Trump growing his lead over DeSantis among GOP primary voters, up to 51-22 from 46-31 back in April. The numbers are closer when people were asked their second choice, with 53% of respondents saying DeSantis was their first or second pick compared to 63% for Trump.
"Electability doesn’t win elections. Connecting with the voters does," Republican strategist John Feehery said. "I think DeSantis is better off attacking Trump for not being a real conservative."
DeSantis to date has largely shied away from doing so, neglecting to mention Trump during a conservative conference in Washington, D.C.
One criticism of the indictments leveled at Trump so far is that they're explicitly designed by Democratic prosecutors to boost his support among Republicans who will rally against what they see as a two-tiered system of justice. Trump himself has a different take.
"If I wasn't running for president, or if I was losing badly in the polls, I would never have been fake indicted," he wrote on Truth Social Wednesday. "Likewise, if the very corrupt Democrats truly wanted to run against me, I wouldn't have been indicted. It is all a badge of honor & courage. I am being indicted for you!"
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Tom Cochran, a Democratic strategist, says it may not matter either way in the end.
“Biden is positioned well against both, and though the general might be close regardless of the Republican candidate, the Democrats will come out on top," said Cochran, a partner at 720 Strategies. "It's going to be a raucous primary for the GOP without a doubt and they're going to be beating up on each other for a long time before one of them emerges."