Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will have to fight former President Donald Trump for independent voters, but using some tactics could push the key voting bloc away from Republicans and push President Joe Biden to reelection.
Independent voters are going to be a key voting base for 2024 presidential candidates, particularly for the GOP as it tries to make up for a less-than-expected performance during the 2022 midterm elections. To secure the party nomination and eventually the White House, DeSantis will need to find common ground among voters.
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Strategists note that in 2022, swing voters opted to vote for Democrats because they found Republicans' alternative solutions to hot-button issues such as abortion and gun rights to be too extreme.
Instead, in 2024, Republicans will need to focus on criticizing Biden on less volatile topics that appeal to independent or swing voters to avoid a repeat of 2022 losses.
Sarah Longwell, founder of the Republican Accountability Project, told CNN that taking aim at the Democrats' response to inflation, immigration, and crime is "really good for swing voters – these are things that the average right-leaning independent voter will go for."
“But by trying to out-MAGA Trump, DeSantis is very much in danger that he finds himself in the same category as Trump with these swing voters who will not like a six-week abortion ban, and who will not like his unrelenting focus” on culture war fights, Longwell said.
In Iowa, shortly after launching his campaign, DeSantis plugged a return to "normalcy" as his goal should he secure the presidency, pointing to the influx of immigrants at the southern border as proof of Biden's "dereliction of duty." He also knocked inflation rates and the state of the economy, topics that are typically important to Iowa voters.
DeSantis also touted his legislative wins, speaking to his conservative agenda on social issues — an area that Republicans historically tend to lose swing voters on. He spoke on Florida's six-week abortion ban and the removal of books from school classrooms and libraries deemed to be inappropriate for students. While these topics will appeal to the heavily conservative base, he may risk alienating swing voters who wanted to take a step away from Trump and his similar policies.
Independent voters are likely to play a significant role in DeSantis's campaign, particularly as moderate or right-leaning voters hope to usher in a new era of politics for the Republican Party. DeSantis is heading into the 2024 presidential election not only with his legislative wins but substantial 2022 reelection numbers as well.
DeSantis had a 19-point win over former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, and an April Mason-Dixon poll showed that 59% of voters approved of his job as Florida governor.
Mason-Dixon polling director Brad Coker told the Washington Examiner back in April that DeSantis's job approval rating is a testament to his ability to reach conservative-leaning independents and turn them away from the extreme nature of Trump, while also maintaining their support of the GOP.
“You don’t get to 59% unless you get a lot of independents to vote for you,” Coker said.
To maintain that swing voter support, Republicans believe DeSantis should focus on inflation, crime, and immigration rather than social issues.
“DeSantis right now is speaking to a primary audience, so he’s emphasizing the parts of his record that appeal to GOP voters and contrast with Trump,” Republican pollster Chris Wilson told CNN. “But his record and results on the economy, on education, and on just running a competent and efficient government without the runaway spending and inflation of the Biden years appeal to swing voters.”
While presenting a heavily right-leaning agenda will appeal to the conservative base for the Republican primary, it could damage DeSantis's chances of securing swing voters when he's up against the Democratic nominee, most likely to be Biden, in the general election.
“DeSantis’s campaign and the entire Republican primary is now about how do they appeal to this narrow, very extreme, very on-line base of a party in order to win the nomination without regard for what it does to their brand for winning the general election,” Democratic communications strategist Jesse Ferguson told CNN.
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Longwell said DeSantis has a chance to temper his messaging in the general election, benefiting from his success in Florida and the age contrast with Biden. However, she said that means he needs to stave off polarizing agendas, or else face the possibility of permanently alienating voters needed to secure the White House in 2024.
"The problem for Republicans, in general, can be summed up by the fact that the gap between what base voters demand and what swing voters will tolerate has gotten very wide,” she said. “It is a chasm that is almost untraversable. It’s too wide.”