House Democrats clapped and cheered as they resolved to shut down the government at a closed-door meeting Monday evening. And according to several lawmakers in attendance, no one raised the negative political consequences of the decision.

That only makes sense; the politics here are so obviously calamitous that only willful neglect could explain the decision. Any second-year political science major could tell you this will backfire. The fundamentals just aren’t in their favor. As President Donald Trump might put it, they don’t have the cards right now.

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WHY THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN COULD DRAG ON

The first and most important fundamental working against Democrats is Trump’s approval rating, which rests comfortably at 45% on the RealClearPolitics polling average. This figure bests both former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama‘s approval ratings at the same point in their second terms. The bubbled fever swamp that is the Democratic information ecosystem casts Trump as a fascist tyrant whose every social media post is a war crime and every golf swing a threat to democracy. But the public is relatively happy with Trump’s performance. And following the bumbling, shadowy, and deeply unpopular Biden presidency, why wouldn’t they be?

To make matters worse, the Democratic Party’s current popularity is on par with head lice and root canals. Every few weeks, it seems, a new poll shows Democratic approval ratings hitting a new record low. Just last week, Quinnipiac found that only 30% of Americans had a favorable view of the party, with 54% holding an unfavorable view, the worst showing for Democrats in the poll’s history. Vanishingly few people like the Democratic Party anymore, especially its leaders, whose faces will dominate the airwaves until the shutdown ends. All this charade will accomplish is giving Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) more airtime. Is that really what Democrats want at the start of the mid-term season?

The Democratic strategy hinges on whether enough political pressure can be applied to Republicans over their key demand, an extension of expiring Affordable Care Act health insurance subsidies. That means Democrats will need to muster the discipline, creativity, and competence necessary to pull off a successful, issue-driven pressure campaign to force Republicans to compromise.

What makes Democrats think they have what it takes to win a messaging war over a crisis they’ve manufactured? And against a president who has controlled the narrative and toyed with them like children for the better part of a decade? Meanwhile, Trump will impose maximum counterpressure as always, using the shutdown as an opportunity to inflict damage on Democratic-aligned programs and constituents.

“We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible,” Trump warned from the Oval Office on Tuesday. “Like cutting vast numbers of people out, cutting things that they like, cutting programs that they like.”

Democrats are eager to give the impression that they are “fighting hard” against Trump. But what they are really fighting against is math. The latest attempt to pass the Republican funding bill ended in a 55-45 vote, with Sens. John Fetterman (D-PA), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), and Angus King (I-ME) voting in favor. That means only five more Democratic defectors are needed.

LIVE UPDATES: GOVERNMENT ENTERS SHUTDOWN WITH NO DEAL IN SIGHT

Do Democrats really believe they can torpedo the Republican Party’s political prospects in a protracted battle while holding on to those last five votes?

It appears they do. But that’s only because they willfully ignore the fundamentals.