Democrats are targeting a handful of Republican lawmakers who they believe are now at risk heading into the 2024 cycle in the aftermath of the party's powerful showing on Tuesday night.
Democrats notched several victories during the 2023 off-year elections, building on the party’s momentum from the 2022 midterm elections and dashing Republicans’ hopes to advance their conservative agendas in a handful of states. The House Majority PAC released a memo highlighting “a clear path” for Democrats to retake control of the lower chamber next year, urging the party to continue putting Republicans on the defensive by depicting them as “extreme MAGA Republicans.”
THREE TAKEAWAYS FROM A ROUGH 2023 ELECTION FOR THE GOP
“Last night, Democrats across the country once again proved the naysayers and bedwetters wrong, with resounding victories in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia, and across New York State,” the memo states. “Research projects conducted by HMP have shown time and time again that Democrats win when they go on offense to talk about the economy, and then contrast that with Republican abortion extremism.”
As a result, the group unveiled a list of 10 GOP-held districts they say will become “incredibly competitive” next year based on Democrats’ performance in the off-year elections.
“Democrats have proven that they can compete and win in Republican territory,” the memo states, listing the districts currently held by Reps. Ken Calvert (R-CA), Lauren Boebert (R-CO), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), Ashley Hinson (R-IA), John James (R-MI), Ryan Zinke (R-MT), Scott Perry (R-PA), Monica De La Cruz (R-TX), Bryan Steil (R-WI), and Derrick Van Orden (R-WI).
The memo specifically pointed to the role abortion played in the 2023 elections, arguing the issue is still a winning message for Democrats since the reversal of Roe v. Wade last year that ended nationwide access to the procedure. Democrats have long relied on abortion to motivate voter turnout — something that has prompted Republicans to rethink their strategy ahead of the 2024 cycle.
Shortly after the 2022 midterm elections, the Republican National Committee released guidance to GOP members instructing them to “go on offense” and promote the “strongest pro-life legislation possible” in Congress. The guidance also pushed Republicans to paint their Democratic opponents as "extreme" on the issue, seeking to seize the narrative that Democrats have typically dominated in recent years.
Much of Democrats’ victories on Tuesday could be attributed to abortion messaging, with HMP saying the issue will continue to play a “pivotal role” over the next year.
The party specifically pointed to the passage of an Ohio referendum enshrining abortion rights into the state’s constitution, predicting the issue will play an even bigger role nationwide. The group also cited wins in the Virginia legislature, where Democrats won control of both chambers after candidates ran on a platform seeking to thwart Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R-VA) proposed 15-week abortion ban.
“If MAGA Mike Johnson and House Republicans get their way, they will implement a nationwide abortion ban - restricting American freedoms and ripping rights away from millions of women,” the memo states. “Vulnerable House Republicans are complicit in this attack on essential rights.”
The memo also ties a handful of Republicans’ newly recruited candidates to these key campaign issues, arguing the GOP contenders hold “toxic positions” that will cost the party. The party hit out against state Rep. Craig Riedel in Ohio, former state Sen. Tom Barrett in Michigan, Derrick Anderson in Virginia, and Alison Esposito in New York, arguing the four candidates could face challenges as they run on anti-abortion platforms in key battleground states.
Meanwhile, House Republicans remain confident they can defend control of the lower chamber next year, with party leaders even going so far as to predict they will expand their four-seat majority in 2024. The National Republican Congressional Committee released its own game plan earlier this week highlighting a number of key campaign issues that are expected to become the foundation of the GOP platform in 2024, such as inflation, crime, and immigration at the southern border.
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All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most of those held by Democrats, giving the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.
However, of the 42 competitive seats, 18 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for Biden in 2020, compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into the next election cycle.