More Democratic voters in Pennsylvania are switching to the GOP than Republican voters are switching to the Democratic Party, a problematic trend for President Joe Biden in his quest to win the Keystone State in 2024.
In 2023, 35,589 Democrats switched to the Republican Party in the swing state, while only 15,622 Republicans flipped over to the Democratic Party, according to the state’s voter registration data as of Dec. 18.
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"Current voter registration trends and polling in Pennsylvania should be setting off alarms for President Biden and Democrats at the state and national level," Erik Telford, Commonwealth Foundation senior vice president of public affairs, told Newsweek.
The data also show that both parties saw droves of voters become unaffiliated with either party, as 20,908 Democrats and 18,927 Republicans left their respective parties.
Former President Donald Trump only lost Pennsylvania in 2020 by about 80,000 votes, so movement between parties can have a major impact in deciding which candidate will score the commonwealth’s 19 electoral votes in 2024.
In a rematch of the 2020 election between Trump and President Joe Biden, the polls are showing a dead heat in Pennsylvania, with the most recent poll from the Bullfinch Group showing a 45%-45% tie.
Biden’s approval rating in Pennsylvania has taken a hit in 2023, with 61% of voters disapproving of his performance in the Commonwealth Foundation’s Dec.19 poll, the highest his disapproval has been all year.
A number of recent polls have Trump leading over Biden. One released this month shows the former president with a lead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and also Pennsylvania, key swing states central to creating a path to 270 electoral votes.
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On the issues, Trump is also performing well against Biden. A Dec.18 poll found that voters are more ideologically aligned with the legally embattled ex-president on almost every topic across the board.
Telford said that under Biden, voters “overwhelmingly feel that things are headed in the wrong direction.”