A final deal hasn’t been reached yet, but as of Tuesday, it appears that Republicans are set to secure significant policy concessions from the Democrats in exchange for raising the debt limit.
As recently as Jan. 7, such an outcome would have seemed impossible. Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) had just barely secured his office after a record 15 ballots. The Republicans looked divided on everything from who should be the leader and whether the debt limit should be raised at all to what legislation should the House majority address first.
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Four months later and it is the Republicans who are standing unified while it is the Democrats who are in disarray.
The White House plan was simple: refuse to negotiate with Republicans on the debt limit, watch McCarthy fail to unify his party around a debt limit bill, and then swoop and pick off enough moderates for a clean debt limit hike while divided Republicans bitterly blamed each other.
But that’s not what happened. McCarthy was able to forge a unified position in his caucus for raising the debt limit based mostly on his earlier success in bringing House Republicans together on energy legislation. That energy bill became the foundation of the debt limit compromise, with additional spending cuts, administrative reforms, and work requirements for welfare programs thrown in to win the final votes.
Meanwhile, the Democrats did nothing to unify their party around a clean debt limit hike, which was President Joe Biden’s ask from the beginning. The problem is it was always clear that Democrats lacked votes in the House and Senate to get their solution across the finish line.
In the Senate, Democrats never could get Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) or Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) to voice support for a clean debt limit hike, and House Democrats also failed to unify their caucus. Even after House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) launched a discharge petition to bring a clean debt limit hike to the House floor last week, Democrats still can’t get their entire party to sign it, let alone add the half-dozen or so Republicans they need to get a majority.
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Republicans are winning the debt limit fight because they are unified around one plan, the House plan. Every Republican in the House and Senate is on board.
Democrats have no such plan. Sure, most of them want a clean debt limit hike, but they still have not yet achieved unanimity. Until Democrats can unify their party on a clean debt limit hike, they will continue to lose this fight.