The Democratic Party is looking to make gains in several districts across the country in 2024, particularly in the wake of a congressional exodus wherein multiple Republicans have said they won't be seeking reelection.
Nearly three dozen members of the House of Representatives have revealed their intention not to seek reelection, a number that is on par with that of the 2022 election cycle. And while many of the departing lawmakers are Democratic, numerous Republicans are opting to leave the House as well, and their seats are expected to be targets for House Democrats in 2024 as they look to take back the majority.
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Here are some of the most significant pickup opportunities for the Democratic Party due to Republican retirements.
Rep. George Santos (R-NY)
The freshman New York lawmaker recently announced he wouldn't be seeking reelection in 2024, following a whirlwind first term characterized by accusations of crime and misconduct and investigations by both the Ethics Committee and the Department of Justice.
The accusations against Santos ranged from criminal to just plain odd. The congressman faced backlash, for example, over claiming he was Jewish on the campaign trail. He justified what some claimed was deception by saying, "I said I was 'Jew-ish,'" using the adverb which is "used for saying that something is not completely true or exactly right," per the Cambridge Dictionary.
It wasn't until the scathing report from the Ethics Committee was released, which alleged that he spent campaign funds on cosmetic procedures, designer goods, and on the website OnlyFans (which is known for pornographic content), that he announced his intention not to seek reelection.
Rated as "Lean Democrat" by the Cook Political Report, this is considered the largest pickup opportunity for House Democrats in 2024, aside from Alabama's new congressional seat in its 2nd District.
Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO)
Buck, a hard-line conservative member of the House Freedom Caucus, announced he wouldn't run again earlier this month after bucking his caucus during a lengthy series of speaker votes before Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) election. When the caucus's first-ever chairman, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), ran for the post, Buck voted against him, specifically taking issue with Jordan's beliefs that the 2020 election was stolen and actions ahead of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
Buck, instead, said he felt like he could influence more change by working outside of the House. "I’m not going to be leaving my role in trying to talk truth to the public," he said.
His district is not considered competitive by the Cook Political Report. In 2022, Buck was elected with 60.9% of the vote, compared to his opponent's 36.6%. However, 2024 is a presidential election year expected to yield a higher turnout. The Democratic Party often benefits from higher turnout elections, with a long history of effective voter mobilization. In addition, Republicans will enjoy less of an advantage without an incumbent candidate who boasts significant name identification.
Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN)
Spartz decided against seeking reelection in February, saying that "being a working mom is tough and I need to spend more time with my two high school girls back home." She won her second term in 2022 by a margin of 61.1% to 38.9%. During her last year, she has become increasingly vocal and independent, seeing a number of new headlines amid the House speaker battle in October. Spartz was one of the lawmakers who held out against some of the speaker nominees, which may have agitated voters in her district.
While Republicans outnumbered their Democratic counterparts in the district in 2022, the same factors of voter turnout and lack of incumbent advantage will be at play in 2024.
Indiana's 5th Congressional District is also situated right next to its 7th District, which is a deep-blue area home to Indianapolis and is represented by Rep. Andre Carson (D-IN). Depending on the migration of residents between the city and more suburban and rural areas in Spartz's district, it's possible that voter demographics could shift.
Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX)
Granger, 80, has served Texas's 12th District since her election in 1997. The long-serving Republican made her announcement shortly before Buck but didn't cite her reasoning other than saying, "It’s time for the next generation to step up and take the mantle and be a strong and fierce representative for the people."
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However, Buck indicated in his own announcement that Granger may have been inspired to retire due to the division in the GOP and the lack of effective legislating in the House as a result.
Granger won reelection in 2022 with 64.3% of the vote. Her opponent received 35.7%. Similarly, the Cook Political Report does not consider Granger's district to be competitive going into 2024. However, Democratic campaigns and advocacy groups are expected to use abortion rights to their advantage in the presidential election, given the results of the 2023 statewide off-year elections across the country. This could be an effective strategy for swaying independent and women voters in Texas, which has significantly restrictive laws in place governing abortion.