Marriage rates are collapsing in the United States, according to polling data, but a wide partisan gap suggests that a reduction in marriage is a symptom of a broader rejection of traditional institutions.
“For 40 years during the middle of the 20th century, Gallup recorded little difference in the marriage rates of middle-aged Republicans and Democrats,” but “a gap emerged in the 1980s as the rate fell rapidly for Democrats but much less so for Republicans,” according to the poll.
The marriage rate for middle-aged Democrats “fell from as high as 90% at points in the 1950s and 1970s to below 60% after 1990 and just under 50% in 2021.” In 2024, only 49% of Democrats aged 30-50 are married. These numbers are closely mirrored by independents.
Republicans have seen declining marriage rates as well, but the drop is much less pronounced. According to Gallup, “Republicans’ marriage rate fell from a peak of 90% in 1965 to less than 80% since 1990 and stands at 67% in 2024.”
“From 2000 to the present, the Republican marriage rate has averaged 18 percentage points above the Democratic marriage rate,” according to Gallup.
Moreover, while “party identification is strongly correlated with a number of demographic characteristics,” the “gap between Republicans’ and Democrats’ marriage rates persists even after adjusting for age, gender, education, and race or ethnicity,” the poll continued.
In fact, “the gap in marriage rates between Republicans and Democrats actually increases after education is taken into account,” the poll said.
While Republicans are far more likely to be religious than Democrats, and religious people are more likely to be married than non-religious ones, there is still a 14 point partisan difference after adjusting for religiosity.
Moreover, Democrats are more likely to reject marriage altogether, as “the share of 30- to 50-year-olds who report having never married more than tripled between 1979 and 2024, from 8% to 26%.” Among Republicans, that number has only increased from 6% to 12%.
One of the biggest reasons behind the partisan gap is that Republicans tend to give more “moral weight to marriage when it comes to things like sex, child rearing and plans for a lifelong partnership.” For example, Democrats are considerably more likely to say that it is morally acceptable to have a child out of wedlock.
While “marriage is associated with well-being” and married people are more likely to say they are living close “to the best possible life,” only 21% of Democrats say that married people are generally happier than unmarried people. Additionally, less than one-third of Democrats believe “marriage improves partnerships by strengthening the commitment to one another.” This means that many on the left perceive marriage as simply less desirable.
Democrats are increasingly likely to say marriage is an outdated institution, and Democratic parents are less likely to say they hope their children will get married in the future.
This still does not answer why Democrats’ attitudes toward marriage have changed so drastically, however.
One part could be that the fundamental dividing line between the left and right in the U.S. is no longer a question of who has better economic policies or who can better deal with national security threats but rather a question of moral purpose. Conservatives believe that institutions such as church and marriage serve the public good, that there is wisdom in the Judeo-Christian tradition, and that the nuclear family rather than the individual is the unit around which civilization is built.
In contrast, modern left-wing orthodoxy worships the individual above all else. This is why leftists believe in abortion because they view children as an inconvenience and why they reject the objective gender binary because it restricts individual expression. Marriage is the giving of one to another and, thus, is unselfish. Therefore, the Left thinks it is an institution that needs to be burned down. Another reason behind left-wing opposition to marriage is that it provides inherent stability to society, standing in the way of revolution. That is why Karl Marx opposed it: If people are happy, they do not want communism.
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Another reason behind the marriage disparity could be that getting married and having children moves people to the right. This would make sense, as the Democratic Party’s social and economic policies are not family-friendly. Furthermore, as someone takes on the responsibilities that come with family life, they recognize the wisdom in conservatism.
The nuclear family is at the root of almost every political disagreement today, and the marriage gap is one of the most obvious manifestations of this. Better understanding how public policy can promote marriage and family life would do conservatives well in the long-term.