The late Rep. Raúl Grijalva’s (D-AZ) daughter is expected to sail to victory in Arizona’s special election Tuesday, slimming Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) razor-thin majority and likely forcing a House vote on Jeffrey Epstein’s case files.

Adelita Grijalva is poised to beat Republican Daniel Butierez in a race to fill her father’s 7th Congressional District seat, marking the second special election this month. She won the crowded Democratic primary with many endorsements from both Arizona Sens. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Mark Kelly (D-AZ), along with those on the progressive Left, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). 

Recommended Stories

• Mike Rogers to play up Trump’s senior citizen tax break in Michigan Senate race
• Harris claims she was part of 'recklessness' that led Biden to seek reelection
• Erika Kirk and Trump offer competing visions at Charlie Kirk’s memorial

Raúl Grijalva died of complications from cancer treatments at the age of 77, just two months after having begun his seventh term in the House. Adelita Grijalva is seeking to finish her father’s term, a situation similar to when the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee died and her daughter, former Rep. Erica Lee Carter, finished her term. 

The special election could be a turning point in the release of more files related to Epstein, the deceased convicted sex offender.

MAJOR HOUSE REPUBLICAN PLAYERS HEAD FOR THE EXITS, LEAVING GAPS IN THE LOWER CHAMBER

Rep. Thomas Massie’s (R-KY) and Rep. Ro Khanna’s (D-CA) discharge petition is merely one signature short of forcing Johnson to put their Epstein transparency bill on the House floor for a vote. Tuesday’s special election could deliver the final signature needed. The so-called “discharge petition” must reach 218 signatures before the authors can call a vote after seven legislative days. All Democrats have been joined by four Republicans, making up the 217 signatures as of Monday.

Adelita Grijalva confirmed to the Washington Examiner earlier this month that she would sign the Epstein discharge petition if she wins the special election on Tuesday and is sworn into Congress.

The current House GOP majority is two seats, with 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats, after Virginia held its special election earlier this month to replace the late House Oversight ranking member Gerry Connolly. Connolly’s former chief of staff, Democrat James Walkinshaw, won the seat, meaning Johnson can only afford to lose two GOP votes and still pass legislation along party lines. Grijalva’s special election won’t change the margin if a Democrat wins, due to House numbers.

MAJOR HOUSE REPUBLICAN PLAYERS HEAD FOR THE EXITS LEAVING GAPS IN THE LOWER CHAMBER

But if Democrats hold on to the late Rep. Sylvester Turner’s (D-TX) seat, Johnson’s majority would shrink to just a one-vote margin. That election is set for Nov. 4, and Turner’s seat is expected to remain blue, given that it is a D+21 district.

Another special election will be held to replace former Tennessee Republican Rep. Mark Green. This election is set for Dec. 2 and would give Republicans a slight reprieve heading into the new year. A Republican victory would help Johnson back up to a two-seat margin.