Lately, Democrats’ lawfare campaign against former President Donald Trump hasn’t just gone nowhere; it’s gone backward.
At least, that’s the verdict since Trump’s hush-money trial in New York began. And it comes as President Joe Biden’s campaign has made a concerted effort to ramp up their candidate’s exposure — to no avail.
Together, these raise the question as to what else Democrats can do if their strategy of driving down Trump continues to fail to gain traction.
It is hard to track all the court cases Democrats have triggered for the former president. Democrat prosecutors have brought four criminal cases against him, there have been two civil cases, and Colorado’s attempt to bar Trump from the ballot prompted another court case by Trump to gain ballot access.
In contrast, Trump’s polling numbers during this litigation are easy to assess. While they fell through the spring, since the New York case regarding the claim that Trump paid “hush money” to pornographic film star Stormy Daniels has gone to trial, Trump’s numbers have gone up.
According to Real Clear Politics’ averaging of national polls, on Jan. 1, Trump led Biden by 2.3 percentage points (46.6-44.3%) in a two-way race, by 5 percentage points (40.6-35.6%) in a five-way race, and by 3.7 percentage points (46.8-43.1%) in the battleground states.
By the time the Stormy Daniels trial began in New York on April 15, all these leads had shrunk. In a two-way race, Trump’s lead was just 0.3 percentage points (45.2-44.9%). In a five-way race, it was just 1.8 percentage points (42-40.2%). And in the battleground states, it was 2.8 percentage points (48-45.2%). Whether it was the litany of litigation or the Biden campaign’s accelerated effort (spending $29.2 million in March alone, quadruple its previous month’s total) to get its message out following the State of the Union, an attrition in Trump’s margins took place.
However, since April 15, Trump’s margins have all increased. As of May 22, in a two-way race, Trump leads by 1 percentage point (46.8-45.8%). In a five-way race, Trump’s lead is 2.1 percentage points (41.7-39.6%). And in the battleground states, Trump’s lead is 3 percentage points (47.6-44.6%).
It’s fair to wonder whether a conviction in New York’s Stormy Daniels trial (or in any of the cases against him) could hurt Trump. We cannot know definitively until it happens, and we at least won’t have to wait indefinitely for it to occur: a verdict could come soon, as the prosecution rested its case on May 20.
The case’s salacious details, however, are already out there in public view. And despite this, Trump’s numbers have rebounded.
So it is easy to believe that a conviction would not change public sentiment.
Indeed, on balance, it appears that the court cases now have more potential upside than downside for Trump. The depths have been plumbed in public, and Trump has recovered during it. An acquittal or mistrial could boost Trump — even an appeal, which would inevitably be more favorable to Trump, would further muddy the legal waters. In any case, Trump will be freed from the requirement that he be present at the trial and off the campaign trail.
The previous few months have been as good as it’s going to get for the Democrats. While Trump has been tied down in a legal proceeding directed by his opponents, Biden has been free to travel at will, use the powers of incumbency, spend enormous sums of campaign cash, and fan his surrogates out. Yet Biden has not erased his gap with Trump — instead, in the last few weeks he’s seen it increase.
Just over five months out from the election, Biden is running out of real opportunities to close the gap with Trump. Arguably, his best bullet was just fired … and it missed. What, then, can Biden’s campaign do?
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Biden has been in office for well over three years. His job approval stands at 40.5% — 15 percentage points below where it was when he took office. Biden’s approval on the economy (39.9%), foreign policy (35.5%), immigration (33.8%), inflation (34.8%), crime (40%), and handling of the Hamas-Israel conflict (32.9%) all stand even lower.
The chances of boosting his approval with the public appear to be limited at best. And now Democrats’ best chance of lowering the public’s approval of Trump appears to have slipped through their fingers.
J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.