Senate Democratic candidates in several key swing states are beating their Republican opponents in the latest round of polling released on Monday.
Democrats are ahead in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but tied with the GOP in Nevada, according to a New York Times-Siena College survey.
The results underscore the challenges that lie ahead for Republicans as Democrats fight to maintain their one-seat Senate majority. The Democratic Senate candidates are far outperforming their party’s leader in the same states, where President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump in all four.
Wisconsin boasts the biggest lead of 7 percentage points for Democrats, with Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) at 49% to Republican Eric Hovde’s 42%. The margin of error for the state’s results was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) leads Republican Kari Lake by 3 points, 46% to 43%. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Then, in Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is ahead by 2 points over Republican David McCormick, 46% to 44%, within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
In Nevada, however, Sen. Jackey Rosen (D-NV) and Republican Sam Brown are tied at 41%. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Democrats also face competitive Senate races with four other seats they hold, including Michigan, Montana, Ohio, and Maryland. Those states were not included in the poll.
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The nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report rates Arizona, Montana, Nevada, and Ohio as toss-ups and gives an advantage to Democrats in Maryland, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Democrats face one of their toughest Senate election maps in recent cycles. They’ll need to keep control of all eight competitive seats, and Biden will need to win reelection for the party to maintain the Senate majority. Due to West Virginia likely going for Republicans with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), the GOP could retake the chamber if Trump wins the White House, with a tiebreaking vote from his vice president.