Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) will not run for reelection next year but will instead launch a bid to replace Gov. Glenn Youngkin in the governor's mansion, the House Democrat announced Monday.
The announcement comes after months of speculation that the two-term incumbent would seek a gubernatorial bid, which in turn would leave a seat up for grabs in one of the most competitive districts of the 2024 cycle. Those rumors intensified over the weekend after Spanberger reportedly told Virginia Democrats she would not run for reelection and would announce her gubernatorial bid sometime next week, according to Virginia Scope reporter Brandon Jarvis.
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"Virginia is where I grew up, where I am raising my own family, and where I intend to build a stronger future for the next generation of Virginians," Spanberger said in a statement announcing her bid. "As a former CIA case officer, former federal law enforcement officer, and current Member of Congress, I have always believed in the value of public service. I look forward to serving the Seventh District through the end of this term and then pursuing the important work of bringing Virginia together to keep our Commonwealth strong.”
Spanberger will run to replace Youngkin, who will be stepping down from the position due to Virginia term limits that bar governors from serving consecutive terms. Spanberger will seek to revert the governor's mansion back into Democratic control after Youngkin managed to flip the seat red in 2021, marking a major win for state Republicans to advance their conservative agenda.
Spanberger's retirement in the House sets the stage for what could be an extremely competitive, and expensive, race in 2024. Her absence leaves open a key seat in Virginia, a state that has become more competitive over the last few election cycles.
There are a handful of Democrats who could run to replace Spanberger should she bow out, setting the stage for what could be a crowded primary. Those who are expected to throw their hats in the ring include state Del. Elizabeth Guzman, state Sen. Jeremy McPike, former Del. Hala Ayala, and former National Security Council deputy legal adviser Yevgeny Vindman, among others.
Several Republicans have already announced their bids to run for the seat. Republican groups were quick to seize on the news of Spanberger's retirement, citing her absence as a key pickup opportunity to expand their slim majority in the House next year.
“Nothing is going right for Democrats in Virginia’s Seventh District, but the NRCC is all hands on deck to flip this now-open seat and grow the House Republican majority," Delanie Bomar, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee said in a statement just moments after Spanberger's announcement. "Spanberger joining the other swing-district Democrats racing for the exits makes House Democrats’ climb out of the minority that much steeper.”
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All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most of those held by Democrats compared to Republicans, giving the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.
However, of the 42 competitive seats, 18 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into the next election cycle.