The most recent polling in this year’s gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia has indicated that the Democratic candidates are maintaining their wide leads.

In Virginia, a poll from Virginia Commonwealth University released Tuesday found former Rep. Abigail Spanberger maintaining her lead over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by 9 points, or 49% to 40%. Polling in Virginia has consistently indicated that Democrats have the advantage in the race. The most recent VCU poll has Spanberger nearly breaking the 50% threshold.

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“The latest Wilder School Poll results reveal just how these races have become more competitive. In the contest for lieutenant governor, Senator Ghazala Hashmi holds only a narrow lead over John Reid (45%-41%), despite [Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA)]’s unprecedented demand that Reid not run for the seat. That speaks volumes about the limits of Youngkin’s influence,” former Virginia Gov. Douglas Wilder and professor at VCU said in a statement.

“The governor’s race tells a similar story: Abigail Spanberger leads Winsome Earle-Sears 49% to 40%, suggesting that Youngkin’s endorsement is likewise not carrying the weight he might have expected. Even [state] Attorney General Jason Miyares, closely tied to this administration, trails former Delegate Jay Jones, 47% to 41%,” the statement continued.

BELLWETHER VIRGINIA GOVERNOR RACE ENTERS POST-LABOR DAY STRETCH

Virginia Republicans have cast doubt on Earl-Sears’s candidacy throughout her campaign. Spanberger has consistently led the polls and has raised more than three times the amount of money as Earl-Sears. 

The Center for Politics’s Crystal Ball recently rated the race as “likely Democratic” after previously rating it “leans Democratic.” 

In New Jersey, a poll released from Quantus Insights last week found that Rep. Mikie Sherill (D-NJ) led former Republican state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli by 7 points, consistent with previous polling. 

NEW JERSEY REPUBLICANS CONFIDENT ABOUT GUBERNATORIAL WIN AS ODDS SHIFT

Ciattarelli is in his third run for governor, but came within 3 points of beating incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) in the 2021 election. The Garden State moved further into Republicans’ reach in the 2024 presidential election, which has additionally boosted GOP confidence in the race.

Sherill, a Navy veteran and centrist House Democrat, has been running a more moderate campaign, while Ciattarelli, a one-time critic of President Donald Trump, has embraced his agenda in his third bid. Both campaigns have made affordability and the high cost of living in the state their focus.