All eyes may be on 2024, but 2023 is an important election year for some states, not least Kentucky. Top of the card is Gov. Andy Beshear, and whether the Democrat incumbent can win again in a typically red state, potentially launching himself into the 2028 presidential conversation. This Washington Examiner series, Democracy Derby, will take a closer look at Beshear's prospects, the make-up of the Bluegrass State as a whole, and whether Sen. Mitch McConnell's health may raise the stakes.
The Kentucky governor’s race is the biggest election this year and a major preview of the fights that lie ahead in 2024 and beyond.
If Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) wins a second term, Democrats will argue that real-world election results contradict the dismal picture polls paint of President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects.
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But if Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R-KY) wins the governorship instead, it will be taken as a major sign of Republican momentum going into 2024 and a suggestion that the red wave may have merely been delayed by two years.
The Kentucky election results will also reverberate into 2028. If Cameron becomes the Bluegrass State’s first black governor, it will instantly catapult him into consideration for the GOP vice presidential shortlist and perhaps even make him a viable presidential candidate.
Similarly, Beshear would be viewed as having demonstrated significant staying power in what is essentially a red state. Winning at this time and under these conditions would put him in the Democratic conversation for president or vice president in 2028.
Biden is backing Beshear. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Cameron during the Republican primary. Trump beat Biden by nearly 26 points in Kentucky in 2020, winning more than 60% of the vote. No Democratic presidential candidate has carried the state since former President Bill Clinton in 1996.
Beshear eked out a win over unpopular incumbent Republican Gov. Matt Bevin, 49.2% to 48.8%, four years ago. A Libertarian Party candidate took 2%, receiving 28,442 votes in a race that was decided by 5,086 votes.
An October 2019 Morning Consult poll found Bevin with a 34% job approval rating while 53% disapproved of his performance in office. This was actually an improvement from a previous survey by the pollster, which ranked Bevin the least popular governor in the country with a 56% disapproval rating.
Beshear won’t be that fortunate in his opponent this time around. But he is himself the most popular Democratic governor, according to Morning Consult’s polling. He raised $17.3 million for this election cycle as of mid-September, boasting a big cash advantage over Cameron. Earlier this year, Beshear was leading by 8 to 10 points. The 45-year-old’s father was himself a two-term Democratic governor of Kentucky, though a campaign spokesman told CNN, “He is his own man, his own brand, his own governor.”
Cameron has been outraised before. He wasn’t the most prolific fundraiser in the Republican primary, yet he won the gubernatorial nomination in a 12-way race. His main opponent was former United Nations Ambassador Kelly Craft, a Trump appointee who spent considerable sums of her own money on the race and had the endorsement of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
“Let me just say, the Trump culture of winning is alive and well in Kentucky,” Cameron said at his victory party after beating Craft.
Democrats think their advantage lies in focusing on local conditions, since Beshear is popular with independents and has some crossover GOP support, while Republicans want to nationalize the race in a state where Biden is deeply unpopular. A mid-September survey found that 31% of Kentuckians approved of the job the president was doing in office.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has frequently looked beatable in statewide polling, leading Democratic donors to sink vast amounts of money into his recent reelection races. But McConnell has ended up winning by comfortable margins on Election Day.
Republicans hope something similar will happen here, defying Beshear’s ability to transcend the Democratic national brand. Social issues are also looming large. Beshear is under fire for vetoing a bill that wuld have banned gender reassignment surgery for minors, saying the legislation “rips away the freedom of parents to make medical decisions for their children.”
Abortion has emerged as a major Democratic attack line, after the party’s successes in recent state ballot initiatives and blunting Republican momentum in the midterm elections.
Planned Parenthood has launched a six-figure ad buy in Kentucky hitting Cameron for opposing abortion even in cases of rape and incest. Cameron has since indicated he would sign legislation including such exceptions, but this has been a theme of Beshear’s ads as well.
One commercial includes a woman who was sexually assaulted by her stepfather. “Anyone who believes there should be no exceptions for rape and incest could never understand what it’s like to stand in my shoes,” she said in the spot. Beshear has characterized Cameron’s abortion stance as “dangerous” and “extreme.”
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If Cameron loses, it will widely be viewed as another GOP abortion setback in a relatively conservative state.
The Kentucky gubernatorial election will take place on Nov. 7, 2023.