As Democrats plot their path to a House majority in 2024, party leaders are looking to declare rematches in swing districts narrowly won by Republicans in the midterm election cycle and flip them in their favor.
At least eight Democratic candidates have announced challenges to Republican incumbents they lost to in 2022, setting the stage for several tight races that could once again determine which party will control the lower chamber. Democrats are especially targeting GOP lawmakers in races that are expected to be competitive in 2024, pointing to the party's better-than-expected performance during the midterm cycle as evidence of upward momentum coming into play next year.
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“Extreme MAGA Republicans, who narrowly hold the majority after House Democrats prevented the so-called red tsunami, have proven incapable of governing responsibly,” said Viet Shelton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Because of them, this year has been defined by dysfunction, chaos, and a focus on extremism at the expense of delivering results for working families.”
One of the closest House races during the 2022 cycle was in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, in which Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Adam Frisch, despite leaning heavily Republican. Boebert ultimately won by just 546 votes, making it one of the tightest midterm races in the country.
Democrats are eagerly targeting the district again, deeming it as one of the party’s best opportunities to flip a seat blue in 2024. Frisch announced a challenge to Boebert in February and will likely face the GOP incumbent on the ballot next year.
Frisch has already proven to be a strong contender heading into the next election cycle, reporting a massive $2.6 million fundraising haul for the second quarter. That number marks the “largest quarterly fundraising for a U.S. House challenger in the year before an election” except for special elections or self-funded campaigns, according to Frisch’s campaign.
Republicans also had a number of hard-fought victories in California, especially for the seats now held by Republican Reps. Ken Calvert and John Duarte. Calvert managed to win by a 4-point margin in 2022, while Duarte eked out a victory by less than 1 point, making it one of the most tightly contested races that year.
Both incumbents will face the same Democratic challengers in 2024. Calvert faces a rematch against Will Rollins, and Duarte seeks to fend off Adam Gray.
Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) may also face a rematch if Democrat Rudy Salas, who only lost by 3 points in 2022, decides to enter the race. Salas has not yet made an announcement on whether he plans to run, but national Republicans say they are looking at the former state representative as a likely challenger after he filed his candidacy with the Federal Election Commission in December.
Rematches are expected in at least two other toss-up districts, including those held by Reps. Marc Molinaro (R-NY) and Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), who each won their races by less than 2 percentage points last year. Molinaro will face Democratic challenger Josh Riley while Ciscomani will take on Kirsten Engel.
Engel has already proven to be a tough opponent, raising more than $100,000 within three days of announcing her campaign in mid-April. Ciscomani has emerged as a strong fundraiser himself, though, reporting a haul of more than $1 million during the first quarter this year.
At least one other toss-up race could feature a rematch next year: Oregon’s 5th Congressional District. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer defeated Democratic nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner by just 2 percentage points in 2022, setting the stage for a brutal rematch if the two were to face off again in 2024.
However, McLeod-Skinner must first face a crowded primary field in order to clinch the Democratic nomination, making it a possibility that Chavez-DeRemer will face someone new next year.
Other rematches are also shaping up across the country in a number of red states, such as Rep. Ryan Zinke’s seat in Montana, Monica De La Cruz in Texas, Don Bacon in Nebraska, and Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania.
However, Republicans have expressed confidence in their ability to fend off any rematches and maintain those seats heading into 2024.
“These liberal Democrats were already deemed too extreme and dangerous by voters in 2022,” NRCC national press secretary Will Reinert told the Washington Examiner. “If they survive a race to the darkest corners of the radical left in their respective primaries, they will meet the same fate in 2024.”
Democrats lost 10 seats they previously held during the 2022 midterm cycle, securing a narrow majority for the House GOP. The defeat was not necessarily unexpected because the party of the incumbent president historically loses ground in both chambers of Congress during the midterm elections.
However, Democrats fared far better than initially expected, giving the party hope it can make significant gains next year. Presidential elections also motivate higher turnout than midterm elections, which could benefit Democrats after increased turnout helped boost its strength during the 2020 and 2022 cycles.
Building on that momentum, party leaders say they are confident in advancing candidates who already have experience running against specific candidates.
“Next year, Americans from coast to coast will hold these extremists accountable and put their support behind battle-tested challengers who are poised to succeed and deliver Democrats the House,” Shelton said.
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All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most of those held by Democrats compared to Republicans, giving the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.
However, of the 42 competitive seats, 18 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into the next election cycle.