The global competition between Washington and Moscow has reached a critical point. The Biden administration and Congress have an opportunity to score a historic victory over Russia, America’s perennial adversary, without the death of a single U.S. soldier. To accomplish such a decisive objective over the coming months, Washington needs to provide all the firepower that Ukraine needs to drive out Russia’s invading force.
The current deadlock along the front lines is not indefinite and can be broken by Kyiv when supplied with long-range rocketry and fighter jets to sever Russia’s key logistical routes. Such a goal could already have been accomplished if strategic fear had not prevailed in the U.S. National Security Council. In fact, it is remarkable how successful Ukraine has been on the battlefield despite President Joe Biden’s incremental approach to providing weapons.
PENTAGON UNSATISFIED WITH TUBERVILLE LIFTING OF MOST HOLDS ON DOD NOMINEES
Moscow is desperately trying to hide its losses in Ukraine, but U.S. officials estimate that nearly a half of Russia’s conventional forces have been killed or incapacitated and vast quantities of military equipment have been destroyed. Russia will mobilize more conscripts, but they are poorly trained. And the losses are beginning to have an impact on public opposition to the war. A Ukrainian breakthrough in any of the occupied regions would have a devastating effect on Russian morale and capabilities.
The importance of Russia’s defeat and Ukraine’s victory has never been spelled out by the White House. Basically, it would mean a Russian military that poses no threat to NATO, a regime that is isolated from the democratic world, and a state confronting institutional breakdown. Alternatively, pushing Ukraine toward a “peace” settlement would legitimize Moscow’s land grab, enable the Kremlin to rebuild its forces for another war, and encourage other expansionist powers such as China to test America’s weaknesses.
Russia’s defeat will help guarantee European security by diminishing Moscow’s military capabilities. This will reduce the need to emplace U.S. troops along NATO’s eastern front and strengthen America’s most dependable allies, such as Poland. Russia’s defeat will also have economic benefits for America. As economic sanctions reduce Moscow’s energy revenues, Europe will fully wean itself off Russian supplies, diversify its sources, and increase imports of U.S. energy, particularly shale gas. Moscow will no longer be able to blackmail European governments over their energy dependence.
A defeated Russia will have fewer resources to promote political corruption, interfere in elections, and weaken democracies. This will help strengthen Western political and economic institutions and undercut influence-peddling by Moscow and its agents. The demise of Russia’s economic oligarchy can also assist in making international financial institutions more transparent and less corrupt.
Russia’s defeat will consolidate the independence and integrity of all neighbors. Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova can regain their occupied territories and petition for EU and NATO integration without fear of Moscow’s reaction. Belarus can also secure its independence and European future. Central Asian states will become increasingly liberated and can deepen their economic and security connections with the West. This will also undercut Chinese and Iranian influences in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
Although some policymakers fear that Russia’s disintegration will follow a major military defeat, such a prospect is itself beneficial. A ruptured Russian state will no longer control the key regions that supply resources and manpower for war and will disable Moscow from reconstituting its power. America will also gain new partners, as several new states will petition to join the trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific alliances. Putin has clearly stated that the war in Ukraine is directed against the West in order to expand the Russian empire. It is time for Washington to acknowledge the nature of the conflict and to demonstrate that there will be only one winner against a failed Russian state.
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Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His forthcoming book is Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Strategic Player.