WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY: Good afternoon and happy Monday, readers! In today’s Daily on Energy, we examine how President Donald Trump’s imposed tariffs on Canada could affect domestic oil prices. Read on to see how Environmental Protection Agency employees have been warned they could face immediate firings. 

Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner energy and environment writers Callie Patteson (@CalliePatteson) and Maydeen Merino (@MaydeenMerino). Email cpatteson@washingtonexaminer dot com or mmerino@washingtonexaminer dot com for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.

PRICES AT THE PUMP MAY JUMP BY 20 CENTS FROM TRUMP’S BORDER TARIFFS: President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs on goods and energy products from Canada are expected to raise gas prices at the pump for Americans, with some regions seeing increases of around $0.20 a gallon.

A reminder: Trump announced the border tariffs on Saturday, initially targeting all goods from Mexico and Canada with a 25% levy, except for energy products from Canada which are facing a 10% tariff. Today, Trump delayed the Mexican tariffs by one month for further negotiations with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. A similar delay for Canada is up in the air, as the president told reporters this afternoon that he didn’t know what the country could offer to hold off the tariffs. 

Impact on prices: It will likely take several weeks to feel some of the effects of the tariffs, but experts are confident the price of gasoline will rise. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the impacts of the energy tariff will be region-specific. While areas like the Great Lakes, Midwest and Rocky Mountains import a lot of Canadian crude to then later refine, places like New England receive a lot of refined products like propane, diesel, and fuel and heating oil. 

Because of this, De Haan estimated, New England will likely see the impact of the tariffs sooner than others, with increases between $0.15 and $0.25 a gallon. Price changes may not hit regions like the Great Lakes and Midwest for several weeks, with increases of $0.05 to $0.20 a gallon.

Seasonal changes: It is important to note that no matter how much prices at the pump may increase, any price change will coincide with typical seasonal price increases expected in the first half of the year. In December, GasBuddy estimated that gas prices would rise by upwards of $0.60 a gallon. 

“We’re not going to see record setting prices this year,” De Haan told Callie, adding that “the normal seasonal rise could be slightly more noticeable this year if the tariffs move forward and are implemented for more than multiple weeks.” 

Read more from Callie here. 

OPEC+ TO KEEP OUTPUT HIKE PLANS IN PLACE: OPEC+ has no intention to alter its plans to gradually increase oil production this spring, while Trump has pressed the oil-producing bloc to lower prices. 

The details: OPEC+ agreed today not to make any changes to its policy of increasing oil output starting in April. The group is expected to ease current reductions by around 180,000 barrels a day, fully recovering cuts by September 2026. 

The bloc first agreed to the April target in early December. The decision marked the third time OPEC+ and its members had agreed to delay anticipated output hikes that were originally set to go into effect in October and November. OPEC+ has said its goal with cutting production is to support “the stability and balance of the markets.” 

“Despite some doubts, market fundamentals remain strong, as indicators of economic growth recovery are showing in several regions,” the Energy Ministry of OPEC-member Algeria said in a statement obtained by Bloomberg. “We expect a greater recovery in demand for oil starting next April after a seasonal slowdown during the first three months of the year.”

The bloc was not expected to heed the president’s demands. During the Monday meeting, OPEC+ also opted to change its list of sources the bloc uses to monitor global production. It notably opted to remove the Energy Information Administration as a secondary source because the U.S. agency was reportedly not relaying required information, according to Reuters. It is not uncommon for OPEC+ to alter this list, as the group previously removed the International Energy Agency in 2022. 

A reminder: Just days after being sworn into office, Trump said he planned to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ to lower prices in an attempt to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. “You got to bring it down…if the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately,” Trump said, while virtually addressing the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. 

He renewed this call one day later, telling reporters at the White House that lowering prices would pull massive oil export revenues from Russia that have helped fund its invasion and war in Ukraine. “So, OPEC ought to get on the ball and drop the price of oil,” Trump said. 

EPA EMPLOYEES COULD FACE IMMEDIATE FIRINGS: The Environmental Protection Agency notified more than 1,100 employees last week that they could be subjected to immediate firing, marking another move by the Trump administration to shrink the agency. 

Recently hired employees with “probation status” who have worked at the agency for less than a year received emails with the notification, said Kyla Bennett, director of Science Policy at the Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER), a nonprofit organization that supports government employees at environmental agencies.

The EPA emailed more than 1,100 employees across the agency, the New York Times reported. 

Employees impacted are “likely on a probationary/trial period” the email said but it is unclear how the agency is defining who is on probation because some employees were not aware they were on probation, Bennett added. 

The email is one of many EPA employees have aimed at reducing staffing size at the agency. 

The Trump administration has promised to make changes in the government from staffing reduction to funding decreases. 

“They want to shrink the size of the government regardless of how that will impact Americans, their health, and the environment,” Bennett said.

Read more by Maydeen here.

PARIS AGREEMENT WITHDRAWALS…COULD NEW ZEALAND BE NEXT? The United States’ second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has raised speculation about whether other countries might follow suit. Now, some politicians in New Zealand have suggested that the island nation could be next. 

The details: David Seymour, leader of the right-wing ACT party and incoming deputy prime minister, suggested on a local radio show today that the government should reconsider its position within the international climate accord. 

“There is a wider question of whether the government of New Zealand should be committed to the Paris Accord when half of the world appears to be pulling out of it anyway,” Seymour said, according to Bloomberg. “That’s a discussion for another time and perhaps another election.” 

As the Paris Agreement has been in effect in New Zealand since 2016, the country has been required to establish regular targets aimed at curbing the effects of climate change and limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The government issued its second emissions reduction targets for 2035 last week, aiming to reduce carbon emissions by 51-55% from 2005 levels.

While Seymour floated leaving the Paris Agreement, which would effectively remove its obligation to issue these targets, he said he stood by the new goal. 

“If you want to talk about the targets within the agreements we have, then as part of the government I support those,” Seymour said. “If you want to have the wider conversation about whether or not New Zealand should be involved in this at all, well we’re the only party that’s been clear on this and consistent throughout.”

STUDY SAYS CLIMATE CHANGE COULD DRIVE HOME VALUE DOWN BY $1.5T: Over the next three decades, U.S. neighborhoods could see a major drop in real estate value totaling $1.47 trillion due to climate risk, according to a study by First Street. 

The study said that about 70,026 neighborhoods could experience a decrease in property value due to insurance hikes and changes in consumer preferences. It added that insurance as a percentage of mortgage payments more than doubled between 2013 to 2022, rising from 7-8% to over 20% of mortgage costs. 

“Climate change is transforming the U.S. housing market through two powerful indirect forces – soaring insurance costs and shifting consumer preferences – which together are creating a feedback loop where climate risks drive population movements and reshape property values across the nation, fundamentally altering traditional patterns of real estate growth and community development,” the study said. 

First Street said the top areas experiencing the highest insurance premium spikes are 

Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa, New Orleans, and Sacramento. 

The study comes shortly after wildfires in Los Angeles destroyed thousands of homes, projected to be one of the costliest wildfires in the state. The study predicts that over 55 million Americans will voluntarily relocate to be less vulnerable to extreme weather. 

ICYMI – SENATORS ASK EPA TO PROVIDE LEGAL BASIS FOR PAUSING CLEAN ENERGY FUNDING: Democratic senators sent a letter on Friday asking Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin to provide a “valid legal justification” for pausing federal funding for clean energy. 

President Donald Trump ordered a pause on funding from the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which were signed by President Joe Biden to help bolster clean energy innovations and technology. But Democratic senators from the Environmental and Public Works Committee argued in a letter to Zeldin that federal agencies cannot freeze funding that has been approved by Congress. 

“We write concerning troubling reports that the Environmental Protection Agency is attempting to claw back funds that have already been obligated to grant recipients. We believe that this is contrary to federal law,” the senators wrote. 

The letter was signed by committee Ranking Member Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, along with Sens. Edward Markey, Bernie Sanders, Mark Kelly, Lisa Blunt Rochester, Adam Schiff, Alex Padilla, Jeffrey Merkley, and Angela Alsobrooks. 

“Federal law and regulations require that obligated funds be provided to grantees absent proof of misuse of funds,” the letter reads. 

The senators noted that the EPA sent a letter to recipients of funding from the Solar for All program that their grants have been paused. It added that grantees from their states can no longer access grant money. 

A LOOK AHEAD 

Feb. 3 The Senate is scheduled to vote on the confirmation of Secretary of Energy nominee Chris Wright around 5:30 pm EST. 

Feb. 4 The Atlantic Council is hosting a discussion on bilateral energy cooperation between the U.S. and Canada, featuring Canadian Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson. 

Feb. 5 The House of Representatives is poised to consider the Protecting American Energy Production Act, which seeks to ban the president from declaring any future pause on the use of fracking unless authorized by Congress. 

Feb. 5 The Energy Subcommittee under the House Committee on Energy and Commerce is scheduled to hold its first hearing titled “Powering America’s Future: Unleashing American Energy.” 

Feb. 5 The Tennessee Valley Authority is holding a virtual investor call to discuss results for the first quarter fiscal year 2025.

Feb. 6 The CATO Institute will host an online forum “Exploring Energy Policy under the Trump Administration.” 

Feb. 6 The House Committee on Natural Resource’s subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources is holding an oversight hearing on the importance of domestic mining when it comes to national security. 

Feb. 6 RENEW Wisconsin hosts its 2025 Renewable Energy Summit. 

Feb. 9 The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles for Super Bowl LIX.  

RUNDOWN 

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