THE OUTLOOK FOR CLEAN ENERGY AND EMISSIONS IN CHINA: China will cement itself as the leader in clean energy use in the coming decades, with renewable energy expected to grow fivefold by midcentury and emissions peaking within the next two years, a new report shows.
According to an analysis from risk management company Det Norske Veritas, China is expected to more than quintuple renewable energy installations by 2050. With a rapid rise in the deployment of low-carbon technologies, emissions in China are expected to peak within this decade, in 2026. And, by the middle of the century, the country is expected to account for a fifth of the world’s energy-related carbon emissions – down from a third in 2023.
“In absolute terms, China’s emissions will reduce by a staggering 70%,” the study reads. “In the longer term, China is close to meeting its target of carbon neutrality by 2060, but will need to accelerate decarbonization of some sectors, especially manufacturing, to ensure net-zero by then.”
Why it matters: The DNV’s latest Energy Transition Outlook, which is considered the most comprehensive English-language report on China’s energy transition, stands to be one of the more optimistic analyses on China’s ability to reach its 2060 goal. In last year’s analysis, the report was unable to forecast whether or not China could reach its goal since its projections stopped at 2050. Still, the report noted, China’s present trajectory made it “unlikely” that full carbon neutrality would be reached by 2060, but notably emissions are expected to be small – “most likely less than 90% of their present level.”
How it compares to North America: In another report outlining the energy transition in North America, DNV notes that the Inflation Reduction Act and other laws have increased subsidies for renewable energy. But even with money pouring into the sector, bottlenecks remain – and the report states the region’s transition is “far from fast enough” to reach net-zero goals by 2050, with the region still expecting to emit 1.3 billion metric tons of carbon.
We did the math: Still, it’s important to note that the U.S.’s expected 2050 level of emissions will be roughly around China’s 2060 level.
A closer look at China’s renewables sector: Within the last decade, the country has thoroughly grown its renewable sectors – in 2010, wind only made up 1% of its electricity generation. By the end of last year, however, wind was China’s largest source of electricity following coal and hydropower – delivering 9.4% of the total electricity supply in 2023. China is expected to have the world’s largest wind market by 2050.
But what about fossil fuels? China is still expected to rely on fossil fuels for a large part of its energy portfolio in 2050 – 40%. Oil and gas use will still rely on imports, with an expected 58% still being imported by the midcentury. The report also predicts that natural gas consumption will remain high, with 2050 consumption only “marginally below” 2023 levels.
Furthermore, energy use will peak by 2030, and decline by 20% by 2050, enabled by electrification, energy-efficiency improvements, and a projected population decrease.
Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner Energy and Environment writers Breanne Deppisch (@breanne_dep) and Nancy Vu (@NancyVu99). Email bdeppisch@washingtonexaminer dot com or nancy.vu@washingtonexaminer dot com for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.
VENEZUELA LOOKS TO STABLECOIN FOR OIL SALES AHEAD OF SANCTIONS: Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA is looking to use the stablecoin Tether for oil transactions in the upcoming weeks as it faces reimposed U.S. sanctions that will make dollar transactions more difficult, Reuters reports.
Tether, or USDT, is the most widely used of all stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies that tie their value to a specific asset. Tether is pegged one-to-one to the dollar. There’s over $100 billion worth of Tether in circulation, according to CoinMarketCap.
The U.S. gave PDVSA until the end of next month to wind down transactions, leading it to accelerate the use of Tether in its contracts.
VINFAST QUESTIONED BY HEDGE FUND-AFFILIATED OUTLET: The Vietnamese electric automaker VinFast, which once had the largest market capitalization of any automaker in the world and made waves for pledging to build a plant in North Carolina, has few sales and has not made much progress on its factory, according to a new investigative report from Hunterbrook Media.
The outlet found that not much had been built on the site in Chatham County, and no workers were present when a reporter visited. It also reported that only 265 cars have been sold in the U.S., out of more than 3,000 shipped – and Hunterbrook Media said it found hundreds sitting on a lot at a port in California. It also said it found satellite images of VinFast vehicles, which were supposed to have been sold to a taxi business within the same parent company, sitting unused in fields in Vietnam.
The bottom line is that it is an extremely negative report for VinFast, which had already faced skeptical coverage and bad reviews.
But note the messenger: Hunterbrook Media, formed last year, is not a typical outlet. It produces investigative reports about companies which it then shows first to a trading arm, Hunterbrook Capital, which then acts on the information. For example, Hunterbrook Capital shorted United Wholesale Mortgage in conjunction with a Hunterbrook Media report that the lender engaged in fraud (UWM has denied the claims and accused one of its rivals of being behind the report).
The Hunterbrook report on VinFast said that it had not taken a position on the automaker. Still, the damaging details of the story will be another major obstacle for VinFast as it seeks to branch into the U.S.
LONE HOUSE GOP CARBON TAX SUPPORTER FACES PRIMARY CHALLENGE TODAY: One to watch in today’s primary elections today in Pennsylvania – Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is facing anti-abortion activist Mark Houck for the GOP nomination for the competitive 1st District.
Fitzpatrick has authored carbon tax legislation and was the only Republican to vote against a resolution last month condemning carbon pricing.
Fitzpatrick represents Bucks County and is one of the most centrist members of the House GOP conference. The race would likely be viewed as a higher priority pickup opportunity for Democrats if he is replaced by a more conservative candidate on the ballot. Houck’s platform includes opposition to EPA funding and environmental regulations.
ONE FAST-CHARGING STATIONS FOR EVERY 15 GAS STATIONS: The construction of public fast-charging stations has accelerated and there are now almost 8,200 quick-charging stations across the country, according to a new analysis by Bloomberg Green. That is one fast-charging station for every gas station.
Tesla is responsible for a quarter of the stations.
The growth so far is attributable to private-sector efforts, the report notes, rather than to the billions in federal funding made available by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
U.S. AND EUROPE OWE POOR COUNTRIES $500B A YEAR IN CLIMATE DEBT? Nobel Prize-winning economist Esther Duflo calculates that rich countries owe low-income nations $500 billion a year to offset the costs of climate change.
Duflo, in an interview with the Financial Times, called the calculation a “number for the moral debt that rich people of the world — particularly people in rich countries — have towards the poor people of the world related to our consumption choices, and thereby our carbon emissions.”
How the number is calculated: Duflo multiplied the total carbon footprint of the U.S. and Europe (14 billion tonnes) by a cost of carbon determined by the Climate Impact Lab ($37 a tonne), for a total of $500 billion a year.
Duflo, known for her work on development in poor countries, suggested the revenues could be raised by higher corporate minimum income taxes and a new wealth tax on the super rich. It would be spent in the form of direct cash transfers to people affected by “climate events.”
Note that Republicans have been highly skeptical of much smaller amounts of funding for the loss and damage fund that got support at COP28.
RUNDOWN
Reuters Wind overtakes fossil fuels for UK electricity generation
Financial Times How US shale keeps sheltering America from the next oil price surge