Emerson College announced Tuesday that it will begin staff layoffs following a significant enrollment drop it says was caused in part by “negative press and social media” about pro-Palestinian protests on campus. More colleges are preparing for the prospect of similar enrollment declines as a perfect storm of factors threatens to drive students to pursue alternative routes after high school.
In an email this week to faculty and staff, Emerson College President Jay Bernhardt said that the school is responding to an enrollment decline he anticipates will only affect fiscal 2025, but that budget cuts from loss of tuition should be anticipated for the next several years.
“We attribute this reduction to multiple factors, including national enrollment trends away from smaller private institutions, an enrollment deposit delay in response to the new FAFSA rollout, student protests targeting our yield events and campus tours, and negative press and social media generated from the demonstrations and arrests,” Bernhardt’s email stated.
The announcement came after Emerson College, like many schools across the country, dealt with pro-Palestinian protest encampments. Boston police adorned in riot gear put down the protest on April 25, resulting in the arrest of over 100 agitators.
It also comes after the Biden administration’s botched rollout of the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA, application, which many anticipate will sink enrollment across the board for at least the fall 2024 semester. Since the chaotic rollout, there has been a double-digit decline in completed FAFSA applications.
“Many colleges are financially on the edge,” Adam Kissel, visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Education Policy, told the Washington Examiner. “Jolts like the FAFSA fiasco and bad handling of campus conflicts will send these colleges out of business more quickly.”
Michigan schools are seeing a decline in FAFSA applications, officials announced this week, despite the fact that state university officials say they are cautiously optimistic about overall enrollment numbers for the fall. According to Bridge Michigan, Eastern Michigan University has seen a 20% decline in FAFSA information for first-time students as well as continuing students.
Overall, 41% of the state’s graduating high schoolers have completed FAFSA, compared to 48% last year — meaning nearly 7,400 students have not completed the application.
While Kissel said there are multiple factors at play in declining enrollment, some appear to be cultural. Young people view colleges as both declining in importance at the same time tuition prices are skyrocketing.
The FAFSA debacle could push some prospective students to decide against attending college altogether, as they will have a year to start a life after high school if they delay enrollment due to the financial aid problems. Similarly, programs such as community college, certificates, and trade school are becoming more appealing to Generation Z.
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While those factors appear to be driving enrollment drops, some observers are also pointing to what has been labeled an “enrollment cliff” tied to the birthrate dropping significantly (23%) during the 2008 recession.
While demographic decline has been predicted for some time, colleges are now facing down recession-era babies turning 18 and looking to attend college — but there will simply be fewer of them. While that may not primarily affect colleges until 2025, the coming demographic drop means colleges such as Emerson that believe their enrollment decline will last one year could be wrong.