New Jersey GOP gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign trumpeted the results of its first internal polling, which boosted Republican hopes of flipping the seat red. 

The poll shows Ciattarelli narrowly trailing Democratic challenger Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) as the pair compete to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ). 

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After two unsuccessful gubernatorial runs, most recently earning a three-point loss to Murphy in 2021, Ciattarelli’s campaign said internal polling data collected between June 11 and 12 put the Republican candidate at 42% versus Sherrill’s 45%. Voters overwhelmingly believe the Garden State is on the wrong track under “one-party Democrat rule,” the campaign’s memo added, touting poll results showing 54% of residents believe New Jersey is headed in the wrong direction versus 33% saying the state is on the right track. 

Last week, the two candidates won their respective primary races, advancing them to compete in the general election as the state decides whether to cement an apparent trend to the Right during the 2025 election. 

“Make no mistake that this is a ‘CHANGE’ election and Ciattarelli is the CHANGE candidate,” the Ciattarelli campaign memo announcing the polling reads.

Republican strategists have pointed to the GOP’s gains in New Jersey’s 2021 gubernatorial election to argue that President Donald Trump’s record performance there during the 2024 election is just another indicator that a political shift is sweeping a historically Democratic stronghold. 

Murphy, a Democrat, was reelected by barely 3 percentage points three years ago after coming to power in 2017 by a resounding 14-point margin of victory. Murphy’s slim victory in 2021 came amid a competitive challenge from Ciattarelli.

Last year, Trump flipped multiple counties red, offering the best performance for a Republican presidential candidate in over three decades and fueling hopes that New Jersey could become the next swing state. 

However, some Republican leaders in the state have urged the GOP not to get too far ahead of themselves in predicting an easy victory this fall. 

NEW JERSEY REPUBLICANS CONFIDENT ABOUT GUBERNATORIAL WIN AS ODDS SHIFT

“We can’t expect all the people who voted for Trump to vote for our Republican candidates. People voted for Trump and then went back to ordinary business, if you look down the ballot,” Republican State Assembly Minority Whip Brian Bergen previously told the Washington Examiner. “I’ve been trying to caution people not to believe that the Trump numbers are their numbers.”

The National Research survey of 600 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.