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Government shutdowns are Kabuki theater. And the next showing is scheduled to begin on Wednesday at 12:01 am. 

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Conventional D.C. wisdom maintains that the side pushing for passing a clean continuing resolution as a stopgap to fund the government is typically the party that can make a more coherent winning argument.

DEMOCRATS STILL CLUELESS ON BORDER SECURITY

Well, the Republican-led House already passed a “clean” continuing resolution, maintaining government funding until November. Yet Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) now demand Republicans preemptively extend sunsetting COVID-era Obamacare subsidies. 

To put the situation in context, imagine Democrats extending expiring GOP tax cuts in a continuing resolution. Or, better yet, imagine them acquiescing to Republican demands to cut Obamacare subsidies. There is simply no alternative universe in which any of that happens. We all know it.

One can certainly appreciate Schumer being tempted by a shutdown. It allows him to show a little “fight.” Polls continue to find Republicans leading on every issue that matters to voters, including the economy, immigration, and crime. Democrats still want to make the fight about President Donald Trump, who, at a 46% job approval rating on the RealClearPolitics average, is faring slightly better than the recent historical average for second-term presidencies. 

At this point, if Democrats agree to a deal without any concessions from Republicans — or at least, the government partially closing for a few days — they risk looking weak and feckless to the activists. But empty gestures aren’t always harmless. One of the self-destructive habits of the pre-Trump GOP was overpromising the base, creating the impression it could achieve things that were never going to happen, among them overturning Obamacare. Democratic leadership is now engaged in the same cycle.

In every one of the 21 government shutdowns since the passage of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, the opposition party has controlled at least one house of Congress or the White House. The Democrats do not. The opposition party in Congress can’t really do much but attempt to obstruct. Though the Left endlessly grumbled about “obstructionism” during the Obama years, it’s a perfectly legitimate tool. But the leverage Democrats hold today is minimal. The upside of the shutdown, negligible. 

For decades, in fights over the debt ceiling and continuing resolutions, Democrats cast Republicans as “hostage-taking,” “legislative arsonists” and “nihilists” who demand “ransom” and engage in rank “political terrorism.” Polls regularly found that over 80% of people opposed federal shutdowns over unrelated policy disagreements. When former President Bill Clinton was in the White House, the political press blamed Republicans in Congress. When former President Barack Obama was in the White House, they blamed Republicans in Congress. When Trump was in the White House, they blamed … the White House.

Let’s concede that in 2013, when the GOP controlled the House, and 2018, when it controlled the Senate, Republicans were the ones trying to squeeze concessions out of Democrats. Today, the GOP wants a clean continuing resolution, and Democrats are the ones demanding goodies.

And yet … 

“Republicans in an unusually difficult spot, relative to past shutdown debates,” claims a CNN piece. “Unlike Republicans’ demands to defund Obamacare back in 2013 and to fund Trump’s (quite unpopular) border wall in 2019, the demand Democrats are making today is actually quite popular.” Is it? The poll CNN relies on has the usual sunny language, “enhanced tax credits” in imaginary “marketplaces,” to describe Obamacare, ensuring that most people don’t know we’re talking about a failed welfare program.

In any event, let’s say Democrats end up convincing a majority of the public that Trump is responsible. Winning the shutdown blame game is irrelevant to your political fortunes. Take the 2013 kerfuffle. The conventional political media narrative at the time was that the shutdown had inflicted “major damage” on the GOP. Polls found that most voters held Republicans responsible, though Democrats also took a hit. Obama pounded Republicans on the issue during the 2014 midterm elections. But the GOP took control of the Senate in a wave election, winning nearly every contested race in the country, and added to an already significant majority in the House. Two years later, the GOP won the presidency and held both chambers of Congress. 

I’m not suggesting the shutdown was the reason Republicans were successful. I’m suggesting that voters don’t care about partisan gesticulations in the long term. 

Politico maintains that Trump is “seeking to shield Republican lawmakers as much as possible from potential political blowback, but many are worried all the same about shutdown fallout in their districts.” Democrats, of course, are already getting cover from outlets like Politico. By this time next summer, most voters will have no memory of the federal government taking a short, partial break. One imagines most Americans would be blissfully unaware that anything was amiss if it weren’t for the hysterics of the media.

Even if they did, our political environment is dark and full of terrors. There will be scores of new outrages and controversies to contemplate between then and now. If Republicans lose in the 2026 midterm elections, it will be over the economy and historical precedent. It won’t be because Democrats are once again scaremongering over Obamacare.  

While there aren’t too many downsides to a shutdown for Republicans. There are possible problems for Democrats.

WHY SCHUMER HAS TO SHUT IT DOWN

Schumer and Jeffries are worried about their base, but so are Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). There are few fiscal conservatives left in Washington, but those who do exist hate stopgap bills that maintain government spending levels. This faction is now likely going to be compelled to rally around GOP leadership, pressuring them to hold the line on expansion of Obamacare. As a political matter, a shutdown is going to be far less damaging for Republicans than preemptively surrendering on Obamacare subsidies.

Then again, Trump could also use this battle to furlough more “nonessential” employees out of the federal government permanently. Typically, hundreds of thousands of workers take short vacations and return to receive back pay when it’s all over. Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought has proposed mass firings this time around. It could just be a bluff. But since Democrats like to tell voters that shutdowns are horrifying and painful, perhaps Republicans should exact a political price for this one. Because if shutdowns teach us anything, it’s that we have far too many “nonessential” people working in the federal government.