The Chinese military has continued to build out its nuclear arsenal in what a new report from the Defense Intelligence Agency characterized as “the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization … in history.”
The DIA estimates that by the end of the decade, China will have more than 1,000 operational nuclear weapons, a majority of which it believes will be fielded on systems that have the capability to hit the continental United States. In 2020, the Pentagon estimated Beijing had a nuclear arsenal of more than 200 and was expected to double by the end of this decade.
China “is undergoing the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of its nuclear forces in history,” the report said. The authors argued, “China probably will introduce new capabilities which carry the potential to destabilize the status quo over the next decade as it develops concepts for new systems’ use and integrates them into its broader warfighting and deterrence doctrine.”
The Chinese military will likely increase its arsenal from Rocket Force developments, including a silo-based solid-propellant missile project, a silo-based liquid-propellant missile expansion, building more launchers for intercontinental ballistic missiles, and more. It will likely expand several facets of the nuclear force to “ensure China can inflict unacceptable damage with both proportionate and overwhelming retaliatory capabilities, thus denying an adversary victory if a conflict escalates to the nuclear domain.”
The report also states that Beijing would “probably” consider using nuclear weapons if its conventional military was facing a grave defeat in a battle over Taiwan.
A 2023 Pentagon assessment found that Beijing had more than 500 operational nuclear warheads, and it first shared the assessments found in the DIA’s report — that China would have more than 1,000 of them by the end of the decade.
The DIA’s Defense Counterproliferation Office produced this report, which the agency released on Wednesday, which is an update on Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions and developments.
Russia maintains a stockpile of up to 2,000 nuclear weapons and has emphasized replacing old existing systems, some of which date back to the Soviet Union.
While Beijing is expanding its nuclear arsenal, the DIA’s report found that Iran “almost certainly does not have nuclear weapons” yet, but it has “exceeded several of the [Iran nuclear deal’s] limits” and has developed a civilian nuclear program “with the ability to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons following a decision to do so.”
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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in July that the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons-grade material for a nuclear weapon “is now probably one or two weeks.”
North Korea, for its part, “is committed to developing long-range, nuclear-armed missiles that are capable of posing a direct threat” to the continental U.S.