China’s top diplomat threatened a key U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific amid an intensifying territorial dispute that could alter the balance of economic and military power in the region.
“China-Philippines relations are at a crossroads,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo. “Faced with the choice of where to go, the Philippines must act with caution.”
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That ominous message came in the wake of a series of confrontations in the South China Sea, which Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping seeks to control at the expense of the territorial rights of the Philippines and other neighboring states. Philippine authorities have adopted an assertive posture in recent months, following years of conciliatory gestures that failed to curb China’s claims, and the dispute has given rise to multiple confrontations, including the use of water cannons against a Philippine vessel carrying Manila’s top military officer.
“The recent incident involving no less than our AFP chief of staff is worrisome, yes,” Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said on Thursday at an event to mark the founding of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. “But it is a proud demonstration of Filipino courage against coercion and our firm resolve to protect, preserve, and uphold territorial integrity.”
The recent confrontations have centered on Philippine attempts to deliver supplies to a grounded ship that functions as a military outpost in the Second Thomas Shoal. Chinese forces aim to prevent the delivery of the supplies in the apparent hope that the deterioration of the vessel will compel the Philippine forces to withdraw.
“We hope that the Philippines will decide rationally, follow the effective way for neighbors to get along with each other, and work with China to properly handle and manage the situation at sea,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Thursday.
The controversy has far-reaching ramifications for the two countries, the region, and even the potential for conflict between China and the United States, which has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines. China’s claim has no merit under international law, according to a tribunal at The Hague that ruled in favor of the Philippines in 2016. Yet Beijing has disregarded that ruling while maneuvering to assert military control over the South China Sea, one of the most important waterways in the world for global commerce, while pressing the Philippines not to expand military cooperation with the U.S.
“If their cooperation in, for example, the use of military bases, joint exercises, information gathering, and logistical supplies infringe the core and important interests of China such as Taiwan, the South China Sea and,” Chinese maritime security expert Wu Shicun, who runs a security institute with close ties to the foreign ministry, was quoted as saying this week, “then not only will China-Philippines relations bear the brunt, and the peace and stability of the South China Sea become untenable, the Philippines’s own interests will also be undermined.”
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Philippine officials are working to joint patrols with other more powerful nations with an interest in free access to the South China Sea.
“It is very likely with other countries like perhaps France, India, Canada, U.K., New Zealand,” Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. told CNN Philippines on Thursday. “This is because they see the cumulative value of working together towards a free and open Indo-Pacific and a rules-based international order.”