The Chinese Communist Party is committed to pursuing reunification with Taiwan even through force, according to U.S. intelligence community leaders.
Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, told lawmakers on the House Intelligence Committee on Thursday that Chinese leader Xi Jinping "has made it quite clear that [reunification] is something that has to happen, and as a consequence, if they believe that peaceful unification is not an option, then they are in the potential for actually trying to achieve it militarily, and they're certainly planning for that potential."
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Xi has made it known that he wants the People's Liberation Army, China's military, ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, though U.S. defense officials have insisted in recent weeks that this isn't a guarantee of military action but a goal.
"We continue to assess that, for example, even with respect to Taiwan, that they would prefer to achieve unification for peaceful means as opposed through the use of force," she added. "They nevertheless are utterly committed to unification, and I think that is the challenge."
While the United States doesn't recognize Taiwan diplomatically, the U.S. has consistently provided Taiwan with weapons to defend itself in the event of a China invasion.
Chinese officials announced this week they would be increasing the defense budget by 7.2%, as officials in Beijing are looking to narrow the military gap with the U.S., which still spends almost four times as much on its defense.
Also, earlier this week, Xi blamed the U.S. for struggles in his country in what was a rare public rebuke of the U.S.
“Western countries — led by the U.S. — have implemented all-round containment, encirclement, and suppression against us, bringing unprecedentedly severe challenges to our country’s development,” he said during a Monday speech at the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, an arm of the Chinese government’s United Front Work Department.
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, until recently China’s ambassador to the U.S., continued to push Xi’s frustrated tone toward the U.S. during a Tuesday press briefing, warning that the two countries were heading down a path that would result in conflict.
"If the United States does not hit the brakes, but continues to speed down the wrong path, no amount of guardrails can prevent derailing, and there will surely be conflict and confrontation,” he said, warning of “catastrophic consequences." He also said U.S. competition with China “is a reckless gamble with the stakes being the fundamental interests of the two peoples and even the future of humanity.”
Haines said Xi's comments were his "most public indirect criticism that we have seen from him to date and probably reflects growing pessimism in Beijing about China's relationship with the United States, as well as Xi's growing worries about the trajectory of China's economic development and indigenous technology, innovation, and challenges that he now blames on the United States," though she noted that the intelligence community assesses that "Beijing still believes it benefits most by preventing a spiraling of tensions and by preserving stability in its relationship with the United States."
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In line with Haines's assessment, the Department of Defense does not believe China will invade Taiwan imminently, even amid its increasingly aggressive military maneuvers toward Taiwan.
Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary for the Indo-Pacific, said the challenge of deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is “enormous,” though he said there’s a chance China won’t invade this decade.
"The capabilities are growing; the ambition is there. We know that,” he explained. “But what we're doing is reinforcing that deterrence, ensuring that the costs of aggression remain unacceptably high to Beijing. I think we have a pathway to do that through our own development of our own capabilities, revision of our posture, introduction of new operational concepts, and then all of the work we're doing with allies and partners."
The U.S. is preparing for conflict with China. It is boosting Taiwan's military, while the Defense Department is planning to deploy between 100 and 200 troops to Taiwan in the next couple of months, a move that could quadruple its presence of about 30 last year, the Wall Street Journal reported last month, and it has sought to build up its alliances in the region. Also last month, the United States secured access to four more military bases in the Philippines, allowing for additional support for its allies in the region while also increasing Washington's ability to monitor China.