Earlier this month, a top U.S. military leader warned that a prolonged conflict with Iran would be “catastrophic” to America's long-term efforts at countering China.
If only Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, commander of U.S. Air Forces Central, and his military brass colleagues knew what was coming in the region days later.
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Hamas, the Gaza-based terrorist group that Tehran supports, on Oct. 7 launched an unprecedented multipronged terrorist attack in southern Israel that resulted in the deaths of roughly 1,400 people, the vast majority of whom were civilians.
Israel is preparing for a significant military operation in Gaza, with their stated goal being to “demolish” Hamas, as announced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The major unknown is whether Israel's other adversaries will join the war in support of Hamas.
While Beijing had sought relations with Israel, its decision to remain neutral in the current conflict demonstrated what side it had actually chosen, and it wasn't Tel Aviv. The current chaos, which Beijing will watch carefully, is enough to make China a morbid victor of sorts as Israel looks to destroy Hamas after the worst mass killing of Jews since the Holocaust.
Longtime Enemies
The most imminent threat to Israel, outside of Hamas, is Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based terrorist group that also benefits from support from Tehran.
“Hezbollah is the most powerful terror organization, certainly in the region, maybe in the world, that has capabilities that are significantly more capable than what Hamas has, better organization, has a more developed leadership structure and actually have a quasi part of the government and a political element that's represented in the Lebanese government,” retired Gen. Joseph Votel, former U.S. commander of Central Command, told the Washington Examiner.
Tension between Israel and Hezbollah has grown since the Oct. 7 attacks, with both sides engaging in tit-for-tat rocket fire, though the back and forth has not led to anything more drastic. Israel did recently evacuate the communities along the Lebanon border.
“The resistance front is capable of waging a long-term war with [Israel] … in the coming hours, we can expect a preemptive action by the resistance," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said a week and a half into the Israel-Hamas fighting. “If the crimes in Gaza do not stop immediately, new fronts will be opened.”
The U.S., to support its most reliable Middle East ally, has moved two Navy carrier strike groups and deployed F-15E fighter jets and A-10 ground-attack jets to the Middle East region to keep Israel's adversaries at bay. The U.S. military has also provided Israel with munitions, air defense capabilities, and other equipment and resources, and indicated more aid will come.
"As President Biden has said, for any country, for any group or anyone thinking about trying to take advantage of this atrocity to try to widen the conflict or to spill more blood, we have just one word: don't," Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said recently in Tel Aviv. "The world is watching and so are we, and we aren't going anywhere."
China Tensions
Beyond looming clashes between Israel and terrorists in Gaza, Lebanon, and perhaps other fronts, there's a broader strategic threat at hand — China.
Beijing has already ruffled feathers with Israeli officials due to its response to the attack, aligning itself opposite them and the United States.
China’s first statement on the terrorist attack characterized the violence as “an escalation of tensions and violence between Palestine and Israel.” The Israeli Foreign Ministry said Beijing's response to Israel's ambassador to China did not include a "clear and unequivocal condemnation of the terrible massacre committed."
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Saudi counterpart in a phone call last week that “Israel’s actions have gone beyond the scope of self-defense,” Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.
China isn't looking for direct client states in the Middle East, said Michael Mazza, a nonresident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. But the fighting allows Beijing an opening to exert influence in the Middle East and counter the U.S.
"At the end of the day, Israel is going to remain a U.S. ally. China is not going to and has no interest in stepping in to fill that role. And Israel, if forced to choose, is going to choose the United States every time," Mazza told the Washington Examiner. "They are positioning themselves to continue to bolster Iranian power in the Middle East, but also positioning themselves as a champion of oppressed people in the global south. So there is a broader play here I think for China to strengthen its relations with and position as a leader of developing countries at the expense of the United States."
The Middle East flare-up takes place against a backdrop of heightened U.S.-China tensions.
The Pentagon recently declassified and revealed 15 incidents in which pilots in China's People's Liberation Army flew dangerously close to or engaged in inappropriate behavior toward U.S. pilots in the region.
"The PLA's coercive and risky behavior, like the kind the department is highlighting today, seeks to intimidate and coerce members of the international community into giving up their rights under international law," Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, told reporters. "And the bottom line is that in many cases, this type of operational behavior can cause accidents, and dangerous accidents can lead to inadvertent conflict."
DOD also recently released its annual China Military Power Report, which states the department believes China has “more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May of this year,” and they think China’s buildup will exceed 1,000 by 2030.
Adm. John Aquilino, commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, told reporters that he hasn’t “had one piece of equipment or force structure depart,” when asked if his forces could continue to deter China while assets go back to the Middle East.
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The Department of Defense had reduced its presence in the Middle East since troops completely withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021 as it refocused its priority to countering an increasingly aggressive China, which DOD has described as its "pacing challenge."
"If deterrence fails [in the Middle East], then we're gonna have to expend more resources and resources in the Middle East, and depending on the nature, scale, and duration of that, of that additional aggression, that will determine the degree to which it's siphoning off finite resources from the Indo-Pacific," Bradley Bowman, the senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Washington Examiner. "No one can pretend to know what that might look like, how bad it will be, and how long it will last."