Paul Vallas holds a lead over Brandon Johnson in the polls for the Chicago mayoral runoff election, with indications showing that distinct voting blocs and endorsements could determine the outcome of the race.
Vallas, the former CEO of Chicago Public Schools, received 44.9% of the vote among 806 polled voters, with Johnson grabbing 39.1% of the vote. The poll, conducted by Victory Research, recorded that 18% of respondents said they could change their minds prior to Election Day on April 4.
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Two key demographic voting blocs could be the difference between Johnson, with a more liberal agenda, or Vallas, a more centrist and conservative candidate, leading Chicago for the next four years. Mayor Lori Lightfoot lost reelection, making her the first incumbent to lose since 1989, after a tenure marked by criticism regarding her response to crime, homelessness, and the coronavirus pandemic.
Voters living near the lakefront, normally a key constituency in the city's mayoral race, said they are favoring Vallas by a narrow margin of 44 to 41. Latino voters, a significant makeup of the city's voters, also are favoring Vallas with an even slighter margin of 39.9% to Johnson's 38.3%.
Johnson, who is taking a more liberal stance on matters, particularly public safety, has maintained support among labor unions and the teachers union. Vallas has received an endorsement from the Fraternal Order of Police, as well as former 2023 mayoral candidate Willie Wilson and Ward 19 Alderman Matthew O'Shea. The Chicago Journeymen Plumbers Local Union 130 has also pledged to support Vallas.
National figures in Illinois and within the federal government have yet to offer public endorsements of either candidate, with Democratic analysts and experts saying neither candidate was the party's ideal choice to replace Lightfoot.
The ousted mayor has not endorsed either candidate but said in her concession speech that she had called both of them to congratulate them and would offer support to whoever wins.
Crime and education are the two biggest issues in the 2023 mayoral runoff, with both candidates sitting on opposite ends of the spectrum. Johnson advocates a more inclusive approach to crime, including improvements in mental health, affordable housing, and school systems.
On the other side, Vallas said he will add hundreds of officers to patrol Chicago's streets and will recall officers back to the police force that left out of frustration with Lightfoot's administration.
An endorsement from President Joe Biden, while not expected, could set a new course for the city after recently taking a stronger tough-on-crime approach.
So far, only one debate between the candidates has taken place. Last week, Johnson spent most of the debate launching personal attacks against Vallas's prior experience working with education and blasting him for being "more of a Republican than a Democrat" on issues such as abortion and women's rights, which was a common statement made by Vallas's opponents during the general election.
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Vallas opted to tout his front-runner position and tried to stay above the fray, launching only one personal attack against Johnson for the teachers union's role in shutting down public schools during the height of the pandemic.
Early voting in the runoff election begins on March 20. The poll had a margin of error of 3.45%.