Gen. Michael Kurilla, the commander of United States Central Command, deserves credit for speaking uncomfortable truths to the Defense Department and political leadership. Kurilla is warning that the U.S. strategy to degrade the Houthi rebels in Yemen is failing. He says more robust action is required.
CENTCOM is the military combatant command responsible for operations in the Middle East and certain areas of Asia. Kurilla thus supervises military operations in relation to Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and Afghanistan. This is no easy task at the best of times. Today, Kurilla’s mission set is truly daunting.
Kurilla faces Israel’s continued conflict with Hamas and a beckoning war between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah. He faces Iran’s continued funding and direct pursuit of terrorism in the Middle East and beyond. He faces the prospect of an Iranian breakout to develop nuclear weapons. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Friday that, should it decide to do so, Iran is “probably one or two weeks away” from being able to produce enough fissile material to build a nuclear weapon. Kurilla faces a resurgent Islamic State in Syria and the ISIS-K syndicate’s use of Afghanistan as a safe haven to plot global attacks. And he must grapple with the Houthis’ disruption of international shipping lanes through the Red Sea.
Fortunately, Kurilla believes his job description doesn’t start and end with keeping his bosses in Washington happy in the hope for his next promotion.
As the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, Kurilla recently sent a classified memo to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warning that the strategy to stop the Houthis’ disruption of shipping routes is “failing.” Kurilla pushed for a more aggressive U.S. response. The Journal quotes an official as stating that “many people found the tone of [Kurilla’s] memo to be a bit shocking,” suggesting it effectively warned that “U.S. service members will die if we continue going this way.”
Kurilla is right to be so direct. It is clear beyond any reasonable doubt that the current strategy is insufficient. The Houthis continue to mount successful attacks on shipping and continue to stress international trade. They continue to laugh in the face of U.S. power, now launching attacks deep inside Israel. Indeed, the Houthis appear not simply undeterred but utterly emboldened by America’s apparent impotence. The corollary strategic effect of this perceived impotence, surely of additional concern to Kurilla, is that it undermines U.S. strategic credibility with key Middle Eastern allies such as Saudi Arabia. And it undermines that credibility in a political environment where China and Russia are making headway to displace the U.S. alliance system in the Middle East.
Kurilla deserves credit for his courage. While the general sent his memo over a classified system, he would have known that it would upset the White House regardless. President Joe Biden and national security adviser Jake Sullivan are notoriously risk-averse toward the Houthis, more interested in being seen to do something rather than actually achieving a positive strategic effect. By sending this memo, and especially now that it has leaked, Kurilla has opened himself to angry resentment. His career may suffer for it.
Nonetheless, Kurilla’s leadership example, putting his assigned mission before his own interests in promotion, is notable. It stands in stark contrast with the example offered by others — including the defense secretary, who failed every leadership test in hiding his ailments from the national command chain (and then failed to resign after being caught).
It also stands in contrast to the approach of Kurilla’s CENTCOM predecessor, Gen. Kenneth McKenzie. In the immediate aftermath of the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal, McKenzie echoed Biden administration talking points designed to whitewash that withdrawal as complementary to U.S. national security. McKenzie said that the U.S. would “always retain the ability to [effectively target terrorists in Afghanistan].” While the general later changed his tune, he must always have known that the withdrawal would risk the situation we face today: one in which ISIS-K has the capacity to activate attack plans across the world from Russia to the U.S. Instead, McKenzie chose to keep his political masters happy rather than offer prudent military assessments.
Top line: Kurilla’s better example is all too rare at the top of the U.S. military. The last time a CENTCOM commander showed this much forward-leaning initiative was between 2011 and 2013, when Jim Mattis was pushed out after advising the Obama administration to take robust responses against Iranian aggression. Determined to pursue rapprochement with Iran at all costs, the Obama administration even tolerated a 2011 plot by Qassem Soleimani to blow up diners at Cafe Milano in Washington, D.C.
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Kurilla’s advice is well grounded and should be embraced by the president.
If nothing else, however, this episode is a good reminder that the U.S. military has some senior officers (fortunately, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs C.Q. Brown) who choose to make hard calls before posturing for politicians and the media.