


The Congressional Budget Office said that the final version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add just under $3.4 trillion to deficits over the next decade.
The new numbers, which came after a marathon reconciliation process in which many provisions of the megabill were changed at the last minute, represent a $4.5 trillion decrease in tax revenues and a $1.1 trillion cut in spending through 2034. The number is the CBO’s final estimate for the megabill’s cost.
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The $3.4 trillion estimate was crafted using current law, which means that it considers that taxes would have gone up next year because of expiring tax provisions, so the revenue gap from further extending the tax cuts is significantly large.
But the CBO also scored the bill using a current policy baseline, which assumes that the 2017 Trump tax cuts would not expire, and found that it would reduce the deficit by $366 billion.
The “current policy baseline” is a novel accounting method that suggests it is cost-free to make permanent the 2017 Trump tax cuts that would otherwise sunset next year.
White House officials have also argued that economic growth from the bill would offset the deficit hit.
The majority of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — which was signed into law by President Donald Trump earlier this month — expands and makes permanent the expiring tax provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. But the bill includes other major provisions such as funding for border security, spending cuts, and other legislative priorities for Trump’s second-term agenda.
The legislation notably increased spending on immigration enforcement and the border wall.
Stopping the flow of illegal immigration into the U.S. from the southern border was one of Trump’s top priorities, and the legislation allocates new spending to do so. The portion of the bill written by the committee that handles Homeland Security includes $129 billion in new spending.
Meanwhile, the bill also adds to defense spending. The Armed Services Committee portion of the bill increases spending by $150 billion over a decade.
The One Big Beautiful Bill also contains cuts to spending by programs like Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or food stamps. The Agriculture Committee, which oversees the SNAP program, reduces spending by $121 billion as part of the bill.
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The One Big Beautiful Bill Act was closely scrutinized by outside budget groups and many released analyses that found it added to the deficit. But the White House argues that it, coupled with the rest of Trump’s economic agenda, will reduce deficits.
The Council of Economic Advisers released an analysis of the Senate’s reconciliation legislation in late June and asserted that the bill would result in a $2.1 to $2.3 trillion deficit reduction over a decade due to the growth sparked by the tax provisions.