The Energy Information Administration predicted in a new report that carbon emissions will increase through 2050 amid growth in global energy consumption, falling short of the net-zero emissions goals set by the Paris Climate Accords.
The projections, released on Wednesday in the agency’s annual International Energy Outlook report, pointed to worldwide population growth, increased regional manufacturing, and higher living standards as factors that would swell energy consumption “beyond advances in energy efficiency.” While the report acknowledges that renewables and nuclear technology will meet the bulk of energy demand through 2050, the technology is insufficient to decrease energy-related carbon emissions in most cases.
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The report also outlines that demand for oil and natural gas will grow over the next decade and follow into the middle of the century, with much coming from the Eastern Hemisphere.
“Across the cases we modeled, energy demand from China, India, Southeast Asia, and Africa will continue to support growth in global natural gas production,” Joe DeCarolis, the EIA's administrator, said in the report.
These predictions run afoul of the climate agreement set forth by more than 190 state governments in 2015, in which parties agreed to keep the rise in global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and reach net-zero levels by 2050.
However, the modeling for the EIA’s predictions are under the assumption that no new laws or regulations take place, and the agency acknowledged that the report should not be held as a strict forecast, as new policies and geopolitical events could alter the trajectory of the global energy system.
“We have a pretty strict interpretation of policy, and we only model current policy that’s legally enforceable,” DeCarolis said during a press call with reporters.
The agency’s oil and gas projections run similarly to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook report, which estimated that global demand will increase through 2045 but runs in stark contrast with predictions from the International Energy Agency, whose head projected fossil fuel demand would peak before the end of the decade.
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Although oil and gas demand is expected to increase through 2050, global coal consumption is expected to decrease between 6%-7% by 2030 and 12%-19% by 2050, according to EIA’s report. But the demand for the fossil fuel will largely depend on the region, as areas with relatively affordable coal will consume more.
Compared with 2022, global electricity capacity is expected to increase between 55%-108% by 2050, with generation increasing over that same period. As much as two-thirds of the world’s electricity generation is also expected to come from renewables and nuclear.