The White House isn't talking about Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but a lot of other people are.
Kennedy, son and namesake of the late senator and Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, and nephew of slain President John F. Kennedy, launched a long shot 2024 Democratic primary presidential bid in April. And he has gotten more traction than expected. While he's almost certain to fail at ousting President Joe Biden, the bid still potentially signals bad news for the incumbent.
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“I think that President Biden is not going to even put his name in Iowa and New Hampshire,” Kennedy said in a SiriusXM interview, referring to early Democratic primary states. “I think he came in fifth in New Hampshire the last time. So I think that he did not want to compete in New Hampshire, and he wants to go to a state where they … can control the results more.”
Kennedy, 69, was correct about Biden's New Hampshire placement, and the president finished fourth in the Iowa caucuses in 2020. A strong South Carolina showing rescued Biden's campaign, and the Democratic National Committee has moved the Palmetto State to the front of the line this time around.
But New Hampshire isn't playing ball, pointing to a state law requiring it to host the first primary. Kennedy plans to campaign heavily in the Granite State in an attempt to score an early win.
Conspiracy theories are part of Kennedy's platform, such as it is, both on public policy and political matters. In a 2021 book, Kennedy railed against COVID-19 lockdowns and Dr. Anthony Fauci, who before retirement was President Joe Biden's chief medical adviser and who previously clashed with then-President Donald Trump over pandemic responses. Kennedy says free speech is in danger due to government censorship. He also has sharply criticized Biden and the DNC for not hosting primary debates.
None of these positions are surprising for Kennedy, but his polling numbers are. A recent CNN poll shows Biden with just 60% support among Democratic-leaning voters, with 20% favoring Kennedy and 8% going for self-help guru Marianne Williamson.
That's a historically high and troubling figure for Biden.
Presidents Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all faced obscure party primary challengers who received less than 5.5% of the vote, and each of those presidents got a second term.
By contrast, prominent primary challengers to Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush all drew double-digit support, and each lost their reelection bids. While in 1968, President Lyndon Johnson dropped his reelection bid when Minnesota Sen. Eugene McCarthy drew a surprisingly high 42% of the vote in the New Hampshire Democratic primary.
The White House's strategy to date has been to ignore it. When asked about Kennedy's campaign launch, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre replied, “I’m not going to touch that with a 12-foot pole” and cited a law that prevents government employees from engaging in overt political campaigning.
The White House referred a request for comment to the Biden campaign and the DNC. Neither of those entities commented.
The press has mostly ignored Kennedy as well, and Jean-Pierre hasn't been asked about him again in the briefing room. His campaign thinks that should change.
“It is up to American voters to decide whether the Biden campaign is making a mistake by ignoring Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.,” said a Kennedy spokesperson. “So far, the rapid traction that Mr. Kennedy has gained shows that the public, at least, is taking his campaign seriously. White House reporters would do well to pay attention to this newsworthy fact.”
When Kennedy does get coverage, it usually isn't pretty. Following a two-hour Twitter Spaces conversation with Elon Musk, the headlines were harsh.
Vanity Fair offered, “Have Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his anti-vax conspiracies found a home?” The New York Times wrote, “Robert Kennedy Jr., with Musk, pushes right-wing ideas and misinformation,” and the Washington Post said, “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. tests the conspiratorial appetite of Democrats.”
Biden snubbing a debate with Kennedy and Williamson is not unusual — no presidential incumbent has ever participated in a primary debate.
But that could play to his outsider appeal in the same way that Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders courted voters who felt they'd been left behind.
“All the real decision-making has been taken from the American public,” Kennedy told Musk. “Our government has become an instrument of corporate power. And because of that, it has to lie to us.”
The media, he added, is now a “propaganda vehicle for the powerful.”
Kennedy is also getting some radical chic-type support, with Twitter founder Jack Dorsey endorsing him and podcast giant Joe Rogan calling him brilliant.
That's not to say Kennedy doesn't hold controversial positions. He first made his name as an anti-vaccine crusader nearly 20 years ago, says that Ukraine is a victim of U.S. aggression, and recently tweeted support for musician Roger Waters, the virulently anti-Israel Pink Floyd singer whose recent performance in Germany the State Department has deemed antisemitic.
As such, and given his 40-point lead in the polls, Biden is right to simply ignore the challenge, argues Democratic strategist Stefan Hankin.
”There's zero reason to engage,” he said. ”There's nothing that the White House has to worry about right now, and I don't think I would do it any differently.”
Talking about Kennedy would only elevate him, Hankin added, and he predicts the Democratic primary challenger's popularity will fade as voters learn more about him.
Much of Kennedy's support may simply be voters curious about or looking for a non-Biden offering, and one with a famous last name who bears a striking physical appearance to his slain father, an icon for generations of Democrats. Another Democratic strategist, T.J. Rooney, also posits that exposure will be Kennedy's unraveling.
”Robert Kennedy, is for some Democrats, very much like a bloody mary. The idea never matches the reality,” he said. ”I’d encourage Mr. Kennedy to appear as much as possible on TV. The White House should echo those sentiments.”
The Kennedy campaign's real damage may be the weakness it implies in Biden. His late uncle, longtime Massachusetts Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, famously challenged President Jimmy Carter in 1980, weakening the Democratic incumbent and leading to his defeat at the hands of Ronald Reagan. Political analyst Pat Buchanan did the same to George H.W. Bush 12 years later, on the Republican side.
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Kennedy's relatively strong polling could also tempt a more mainstream Democrat, perhaps a big-state governor or senator, to enter the contest in an attempt to knock out the 80-year-old Biden. That hasn't happened yet, and Hankin predicts it won't.
”If he (Kennedy) got to 50% support,” he said, ”that would be problematic.”