California may be riding high with a boost in zero-emission vehicle sales, but some are wondering whether the Golden State can keep up with its ambitious plan to lead the nation in the long term.
One in four new car buyers in California opted for zero-emission options for the second quarter, according to California Energy Commission data released Tuesday. ZEV purchases spiked during the spring and early summer, a massive rebound after sales declined the previous three quarters.
The numbers were good news to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), who has touted the state’s dominance in the sector and pushed for cleaner transportation.
“California continues to prove the naysayers and skeptics wrong because our innovation is simply unmatched,” Newsom said. “Our policies helped lay the groundwork for our transition to clean cars — and now Californians are making the switch in record numbers. Clean cars are here, and they’re here to stay — thanks to California.”
During a conference call with reporters, Newsom said the goal is for the state to “dominate” the ZEV space.
“We think this is one of the most significant economic opportunities in our lifetime, to move forward in the context of changing the way we produce and consume energy,” he said.
The California Air Resources Board in August 2022 approved the landmark plan to end the sale of gasoline-only vehicles in the state by 2035. Some auto experts say the expectations are too high. In order to hit the target, the rate of ZEV adoption has to accelerate much faster, something that is not happening.
“We’re seeing that there is a slowdown,” said Ivan Drury, director of auto insights for Edmunds.com.
There were slightly fewer ZEVs bought or leased between April 2024 and June 2024 than during the same period in 2023 — 118,181 this year to 118,776 in 2023.
“For [the numbers] to go flat, that’s not confidence-inspiring,” Drury said.
He added that high interest rates, a shaking economy, and uncertainty over the presidential election have some customers rethinking their options.
“If you’re on the fence at all, it’s almost like the best decision is making no decision right now,” he said.
David Hochschild, chairman of the energy commission, was more optimistic.
He told reporters that he believes California is still on target to meet its 2035 goal and that the price of batteries in ZEVs will lower over time, making them an easier sell to customers.
“There is sort of a stairstep dynamic with a lot of these market transformations,” he said during the call. “We’ve seen this, by the way, in other technologies — solar and wind.”
He added that it’s “really important not to mistake the forest for the trees.”
While California’s all-ZEV mandate for new vehicles is slated to go into effect in 2035, there are state-imposed targets along the way.
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The first is in 2026. By then, at least 35% of model year 2026 passenger cars and trucks sold must be either electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
Four years after that, at least 68% of new vehicles must fall into those categories.