A protracted effort to broker a ceasefire and hostage release deal has reached “the decisive moment” for a deal between Israel and Hamas, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who pitched the pact as an off-ramp from a potential clash between Israel and Iran.
“This is the decisive moment,” Blinken told reporters Tuesday in Annapolis, Maryland. “The negotiations have reached their final stage, and we believe strongly that they should come across the finish line very, very soon.”
Blinken made the remarks alongside Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin as the pair hosted their Australian counterparts at the U.S. Naval Academy. Those annual dialogues have taken on added significance in recent years given the importance of the U.S.-Australia alliance to the wider competition with China, but the conversation this week was overshadowed by the prospect of Iran’s impending response to the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran.
“Everyone in the region should understand that further attacks only perpetuate conflict, instability, [and] insecurity for everyone,” Blinken said. “And further attacks only raise the risk of dangerous outcomes that no one can predict and no one can fully control.”
The potential for a war between Israel and Iran has haunted U.S. officials and their counterparts across the Middle East since the Oct. 7 terrorist attack by Hamas that ignited the war. As Israel’s campaign in Gaza has unfolded, other Iranian proxies, especially Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemen-based Houthis, have conducted a variety of attacks designed to put pressure on Israel and international powers, especially the United States.
“We’ve adjusted our military posture to strengthen our force protection, to reinforce our ironclad commitment to the offense of Israel, and to remain prepared to respond to any contingency,” Austin said Tuesday evening. “I’ve also ordered more cruisers and destroyers capable of ballistic missile defense to the region, and I’ve ordered the deployment of another fighter squadron to the Middle East to reinforce our defensive air support capabilities here.”
The U.S. military presence in the region served in the initial months of the war to help deter Lebanese Hezbollah from launching a full-scale attack on Israel in support of Hamas and also to provide additional air defense coverage to drones and missiles launched at vessels in the Red Sea. Yet Israel’s killing of a senior Iranian military officer in Syria gave rise to the first-ever direct attack on Israel from Iran — a largely unsuccessful bombardment that was thwarted by a multi-national coalition of countries. And the killing of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, as well as another senior Hezbollah official in Beirut, has spurred Iran and its proxies to pledge to retaliate once more.
“We have not sought escalations until now, we have been fighting in support of Gaza but keeping in mind the Lebanese national interest,” Lebanese Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said Tuesday. “But an assassination of a top leader in [Beirut] must be treated differently. … Our response is coming, God willing, from us and the axis of resistance — and it will be strong.”
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Hamas, for its part, announced that military commander Yahya Sinwar, the Gaza-based mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack, will replace Haniyeh, whose political role outside of Gaza had made him a key point of contact for the Arab governments mediating the ceasefire talks. Blinken, though, downplayed the significance of the change.
“With regard to Mr. Sinwar, he has been and remains the primary decider when it comes to concluding the ceasefire,” Blinken said. “It is really on him to decide whether to move forward with a ceasefire … and that, besides changing everything for people in Gaza — bringing the hostages home, giving us an opportunity to build a more enduring peace for Gaza — also opens up other possibilities, other prospects, more broadly, in terms of de-escalating tensions and bringing real security and stability.”