More than one year before Louisiana GOP voters decide who should be their senator, John Fleming feels good about his prospects of beating out Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), thanks in part to new voting rules.

The Louisiana State Treasurer, who announced a Senate run in December, hopes that Cassidy’s vulnerability among a reinvigorated MAGA base will propel him to be the state’s next senator. A former House lawmaker, Fleming was also a founding member of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus.

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Cassidy incurred the wrath of President Donald Trump in 2021 when he voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges related to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

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But it was his waffling on whether to support now Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, whom he ultimately supported, that Fleming said will likely help him unseat Cassidy.

“Louisianaians are really very skeptical (of Cassidy),” said Fleming in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “He was the last holdout all the way to the end, and they feel very angry that he should have gotten on board immediately. So, to hold out to the very end and leave it in question … actually hurts. He actually loses points.”

Louisiana will operate under a new primary process next year, moving away from its jungle primary system where all candidates competed and if no candidate won the majority, then the top two candidates advanced to the general election runoff.

Now only Republicans or unaffiliated voters will be allowed to participate in the GOP primary and if no candidate wins the majority, the race is forced into a runoff.

The new system could make it harder for Cassidy to win reelection as he seeks to rebuild his reputation with the GOP.

John Couvillon, a Louisiana-based pollster, claimed that with the new primary system, Cassidy will no longer face 100% of voters next year but instead 57% of the electorate, which could make his reelection path harder.

“When I went back in time and looked at party primaries that we had for a brief period of time in 2008 and 2010 here in Louisiana, turnout was abysmally low,” said Couvillon, who polled for Fleming. “As in, we’re talking in the 10 to 30% range. So when you’re talking about a primary electorate that I could see being in the 10 to 30% of 57%, you’re talking about a tiny sliver of voters who are going to determine Sen. Cassidy’s future.”

A Morning Consult poll from January showed Cassidy with a 69% approval rating among home-state Republicans. But only 27% of Republicans and 22% of self-described conservatives “strongly approve” of Cassidy’s job performance, a warning sign ahead of next year’s primary.

“Voters sent me to Washington to fight for conservative solutions on issues like flood insurance and health care,” Cassidy in a statement at the time. “Louisianans know I get stuff done. Good policy makes good politics.”

“Political pundits in Louisiana, and generally, people in Louisiana, are calling BS on his favorability,” Fleming said, dismissing the Morning Consult poll.

Fleming claims he wants to earn Trump’s endorsement for the Senate race but the president has yet to weigh in. Trump supported Fleming during his run for state treasurer in 2023 and backed Cassidy’s 2020 reelection campaign.

Besides Fleming, no other Cassidy challenger has emerged yet, and no Democrat has entered the race yet in the comfortably red Bayou State.

But there are other potential Republicans who could enter the race, including state Sen. Blake Miguez, Eric Skrmetta, a Louisiana Public Service Commission member, and Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA).

Fleming’s internal polling shows him in a close race against the incumbent senator. When asked which GOP candidate they would support for the Senate, Fleming pulled 29% among likely Republican primary voters, Cassidy garnered 27% support, 36% said undecided, 6% chose Miguez, and Skrmetta pulled 2% support. (Higgins was not an option for voters to choose).

When the poll asked voters to choose just between the declared candidates Fleming, Cassidy, and undecided, the state treasurer pulled 40% while the senator garnered 27% and 33% chose undecided.

The poll of 600 likely Republican voters was conducted Feb. 24-26 with a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.

“When I see an incumbent U.S. senator who is not attaining 30% of the vote, that’s a big red flag to me,” said Couvillon, who conducted Fleming’s survey.

But Cassidy still has advantages that can’t be dismissed.

In January, Cassidy had more than $6.5 million cash on hand after the fourth quarter of 2024 up from $5.8 million at the end of the third quarter.

“The people of Louisiana want someone who will fight for them as I have in the Senate,” said Cassidy at the time. “I am grateful for the financial support Louisianans have shown me. I’m ready to get to work over the next four years.”

Fleming told the Washington Examiner he had around $150,000 cash on hand.

“But we have pledges of that much more and then I’m gonna plop a million dollars of my own money,” Fleming added.

As the chairman of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, Cassidy can champion his efforts to bring funds to the Bayou State. Cassidy voted to confirm all of Trump’s Cabinet members, holding off further MAGA anger.

Despite his status as a swing vote for Tulsi Gabbard‘s nomination to be director of national intelligence, Cassidy ultimately fell in line with the GOP and confirmed her nomination.

“President Trump chose Tulsi Gabbard to be his point person on foreign intelligence,” Cassidy said in a statement at the time. “I will trust President Trump on this decision and vote for her confirmation.”

Fleming ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2016. In his current bid for the upper chamber, his campaign reported nearly $530,000 in debt during the fourth quarter.

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Cassidy’s campaign did not appear to take Fleming’s comments about his financing seriously.

“He came in 5th place last time he ran for Senate in 2016, currently has $530k in campaign debt, and only raised $6k since he announced,” a Cassidy campaign spokesman told the Washington Examiner, dismissing Fleming as a real challenger.