President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election just weeks before the Democratic National Convention has brought to memory the 1968 convention. The chaotic parallels are easy to see.
Next month, the Democratic Party will gather in Chicago, the same city where Democrats met during the 1968 election cycle.
During that year, sitting President Lyndon B. Johnson withdrew his reelection bid due to tensions over the Vietnam War, and Vice President Hubert Humphrey became the front-runner after former Attorney General Robert Kennedy was assassinated.
Democrats face a perilously similar situation now.
With Biden’s exit just 106 days before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris is the clear favorite to take his spot. Biden and several other top Democrats have already endorsed her to that effect.
If she secures the Democratic nomination, Harris has the potential to become the first Democratic nominee without being put through a primary vote since 1968. Much like Humphrey, who was selected by delegates as the presidential nominee in the first round of voting, Harris could inherit the fight against former President Donald Trump in November — but not without cost.
The warning of 1968 is this: The instability of the Democratic Party ultimately lost Humphrey the election to Richard Nixon, in large part due to a lack of party unity and an accurate understanding of what voters wanted.
Fast forward to 2024, and the Democratic Party is hurtling toward the same outcome. Lacking sufficient voter support, and staring down a potential open convention, the Democratic nominee is likely to be unfavorable to voters — especially since he or she will not have been chosen by the voters but by a handful of Democratic leaders and donors.
Making matters worse, this debacle comes after months of gaslighting by Democrats regarding Biden’s declining health. The Democratic Party has been covering up Biden’s decline for quite some time, and the voters know it. It was only when the polls began to confirm voter sentiment that the Democrats decided it was time to jump ship, regardless of the primary election results.
Democrats ought to factor in the history of previously contentious presidential elections, 1968 included, because that history shows party breakdowns lose elections.
And in stark contrast to the current state of the Democrats, the Republicans are looking surprisingly unified. Unlike the Republican Party’s conventions in both 2016 and in 2020, the 2024 convention displayed a unified party atmosphere and support for its presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump.
The Republican Party has signaled to voters that the political tides are changing — seemingly in favor of a Republican president winning the election, much like Nixon’s victory over Humphrey.
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But conservatives shouldn’t get ahead of themselves. Although history is on the conservatives’ side, a GOP victory is far from certain.
Nevertheless, a look back at 1968 indicates that Harris, or whoever ends up being the nominee, will face a stiff uphill battle, especially if Democrats devolve into chaos as they approach next month’s convention.