President Joe Biden is poised to lose battleground North Carolina to former President Donald Trump or Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), according to a poll.
Trump, who won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020, would be awarded the Tar Heel State's 15 Electoral College votes if next year's general election were held today, 43% to 40%, according to Opinion Diagnosis survey results released Thursday.
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Trump would also beat Biden among unaffiliated voters, 38% to 34%, but more than a quarter of respondents told researchers they would vote for somebody else or remain undecided.
DeSantis would have a larger margin of victory over Biden, 46% to 41%. The governor additionally outperforms the president among unaffiliated voters, 50%-33%. Seventeen percent said they would vote for someone else or do not know for whom to cast a ballot.
"At this point, Gov. DeSantis is the stronger general election candidate against President Biden, as compared to President Trump," Opinion Diagnostics partner Patrick Sebastian said. "DeSantis’ position is bolstered by his 17-point lead over Biden among unaffiliated voters and Biden’s poor performance among younger voters when matched up against DeSantis."
"Younger voters are usually a reliable base for Democrats, but trends seen in public and private polling for over a year indicate this support base is eroding in North Carolina for Biden," he added.
Trump, too, would take the 2024 North Carolina Republican primary with 44% of the vote. DeSantis would receive 22%, former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley 7%, former Vice President Mike Pence 6%, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) 4%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie 2%, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson 1%, and multimillionaire entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy 1%. Two percent would support other contenders, and 11% remain undecided. Trump would be victorious in a head-to-head matchup with DeSantis, 50% to 35%. Fifteen percent are undecided.
The Biden campaign has focused on North Carolina as it seeks to expand its map and look for back-ups should the president not keep Arizona and Georgia in his column. Former President Barack Obama was the last Democrat to secure North Carolina in 2008.
Biden is scheduled to be in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, on Friday to deliver remarks on "how career-connected learning and workforce training programs are preparing students for good-paying jobs in North Carolina and nationwide." In Fort Liberty, he and first lady Jill Biden will meet with service members and their families as they promote Joining Forces, a government initiative to support military and veteran families, caregivers, and survivors.
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The 2024 Republican hopefuls will be in North Carolina on Saturday for the state party's annual convention, this year in Greensboro.
Opinion Diagnostics, a Boston- and Raleigh-based polling and market research firm, surveyed 902 likely North Carolina 2024 general election voters, as well as 408 likely North Carolina 2024 Republican presidential primary voters, from June 5-7.