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Mike Brest, Defense Reporter


NextImg:Biden team hopes to bring Russia and China to table for nuclear arms control talks

The Biden administration is looking to engage with Russia and China on nuclear arms control as the United States faces two near-peer nuclear powers for the first time in history.

At this moment, Russia has walked away from the New START treaty, which puts limits on the number of nuclear weapons it or the U.S. can have. The People’s Republic of China has “thus far opted not to come to the table for substantive dialogue on arms control,” according to national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

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Sullivan laid out the administration’s stance on how to reengage and convince Chinese and Russian leaders at the 2023 Arms Control Association annual meeting on Friday. A central tenet of Sullivan's pitch is that it’s in everyone’s best interest for them to essentially compartmentalize nuclear safety and communication and be competitors in various other fields to ensure there is no miscommunication between nuclear powers.

"First, update our deterrence capabilities and plans, and second, advance new arms control and risk reduction measures. These are two sides of the same proverbial nuclear coin. Responsibly enhancing our deterrent capabilities allows us to negotiate arms control from a position of strength and confidence, and new arms control helps limit and shape our adversaries' decisions on nuclear capabilities."

The New START treaty was the only agreement left regulating the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, but Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he was suspending his country's participation in, but not withdrawing from, it on Feb. 21. The treaty, which was initially signed in 2010, was extended just days before its expiration in February 2021 for another five years.

Russia’s willingness to adhere to the treaty's central limits, despite pulling out, shows “a potential willingness to continue limiting strategic nuclear forces through 2026,” Sullivan said, but that cannot yet be said for the Chinese.

“Unlike Russia, who is threatening to walk away from the negotiating table, from the arms control agreements our countries have relied upon for years, the PRC has thus far opted not to come to the table for substantive dialogue on arms control. It has declined to share the size and scope of its nuclear forces or to provide launch notifications," the national security adviser explained. "And it has not shown much interest in discussions regarding the changes it is making to its nuclear forces. Simply put, we have not yet seen a willingness from the PRC to compartmentalize strategic stability from broader issues in the relationship.”

"By 2035, the PRC is on track to have as many as 1,500 nuclear warheads, one of the largest peacetime nuclear buildups in history," Sullivan added.

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The U.S. is willing to pursue these negotiations without "preconditions," he added, explaining that it "does not mean without accountability. We'll still hold nuclear powers accountable for reckless behavior, and it will still hold our adversaries and competitors responsible for upholding nuclear agreements."

Sullivan also said the U.S. is seeing "increasing nuclear threats from [North Korea] and Iran."