If you want to know just how precarious a position President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign is in, you need only look at what his numbers look like in safe Democratic states. For that, there is no better window than California.
According to a poll from Emerson College and Inside California Politics, Biden has just a 44% approval rating in California, with 40% disapproving. That would mark a decline from Morning Consult’s March 2023 results that had Biden at plus 11 in California, one of only 10 states in which his approval rating was not underwater.
BIDEN’S LAND GRAB HURTS WORKING PEOPLE
The Emerson poll also has Biden at 72% in the Democratic presidential primary in the Golden State, with D-tier challengers Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson combining for 24%. The problem Biden has been facing for months now is the possibility that those two candidates hang around in polls long enough that a candidate who poses a real threat (such as Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), who is all but running for president) would decide he is weak enough to be defeated.
As for his approval ratings, Biden is in no danger of losing California in a general election, but it does carry other concerns. For example, Biden was four points underwater in a Siena poll of likely New York voters in August 2022 ahead of the midterm elections. In one of the few states where Republicans nominated serious candidates, New York Republicans nearly toppled Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) and picked up four House seats, securing a GOP House majority.
California is home to 10 competitive House races that could end up deciding control of the chamber. Assuming Republicans do not nominate a certain former president who is toxic to the electorate, Biden could end up dragging down Democrats in those districts.
Along with that, if Biden is only sitting at plus 4 approval in California of all states, his chances of winning swing states look bleak. Morning Consult’s March 2023 approval numbers have Biden at least 10 points underwater in the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. In New Mexico, Biden's approval rating is sitting at negative 8.
Biden is unpopular with the general public, and even Democrats will only reluctantly vote for him if he becomes the nominee. If his poll numbers remain as weak as they are in a Democratic Party stronghold such as California, he may not even make it that far. Biden is old and unpopular, and most people don’t want to see him win another term. The only question is how badly Republicans want to waste this opportunity.