Republicans are playing a waiting game with a presumed-but-not-yet-declared candidate in Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), but Democrats are doing much the same with President Joe Biden.
Biden is almost universally regarded as a sure bet to run for reelection in 2024 despite the fact he would be 86 by the end of a second term. He is already the oldest man to ever be president.
The State of the Union address was largely a campaign speech, during which he took unscripted shots at Republicans over Social Security and Medicare, two major themes he used to minimize Democratic losses in the midterm elections. Biden’s remarks were bookended by an appearance at the Democratic National Committee at which party activists chanted “Four more years!” and a national tour touting the administration’s initiatives, with some stops in battleground states.
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The DNC has revamped the primary calendar in Biden’s favor, snubbing longtime early states Iowa and New Hampshire while letting South Carolina (the state that essentially rescued Biden’s campaign in 2020) go first.
While the ostensible rationale was to promote racial diversity, these moves were not done to benefit Pete Buttigieg, who actually leads Biden in the Granite State, according to a University of New Hampshire poll. They were done with the incumbent president’s blessing and with his political fortunes in mind.
Biden has reportedly told associates he plans to run again. First lady Jill Biden is said to be “all in” on another campaign. He has stated more than once that it is his “intention” to enter the race, especially against the already declared former President Donald Trump, though he has stopped short of saying so definitively.
The only stipulation has been good health. Biden’s physical was long delayed, but it has finally been released without any major red flags. "President Biden remains a healthy, vigorous, 80-year-old male," a memo summarizing its findings concludes, "who is fit to successfully execute the duties of the presidency, to include those as chief executive, head of state, and commander in chief."
Questions about Biden’s cognitive abilities remain — that’s why former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley proposed testing politicians over the age of 75 in her campaign launch speech — but nothing in the physical seems to cut against a 2024 bid.
Yet whispers that Biden might not run are starting to be heard again. The campaign launch target date has been pushed to April, but even that is not a hard deadline. The White House has emphasized that international and domestic events, ranging from the anniversary of the war in Ukraine to the Ohio train derailment, have intervened.
If DeSantis doesn’t run, other candidates, including Trump, are already doing so. Biden has cleared the Democratic field, save for potential minor challengers such as Marianne Williamson, whom few party insiders regard as a viable alternative. Vice President Kamala Harris’s poll numbers remain low, and Buttigieg, the transportation secretary, is under siege for his handling of the Ohio toxic train situation.
“Democratic Govs. JB Pritzker of Illinois, Gavin Newsom of California and Phil Murphy of New Jersey have taken steps that could be seen as aimed at keeping the door cracked if Biden bows out — though with enough ambiguity to give them plausible deniability,” Politico reported. “Senators like Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar have been making similar moves.”
The story quotes people in touch with Biden who portray him as “a kind of Hamlet on Delaware’s Christina River, warily biding his time as he ponders the particulars of his final campaign.”
Democratic strategists have previously told the Washington Examiner that Biden should not feel any rush to announce his decision — if the answer is yes. One even said that it might be better to wait to see whether the Republicans nominate Trump or someone else, though this person conceded that was not practical.
Multiple polls have shown that rank-and-file Democrats, especially those under the age of 30, do not want Biden to run. That was also true of two-thirds of all voters in the exit polls during the midterm elections.
If Biden opts not to run, he will need to soon begin giving signals to donors and other prospective candidates that it is time to look elsewhere for a 2024 standard-bearer. Both he and DeSantis would have to start having those conversations relatively soon.
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But unlike DeSantis, who is already safely ensconced in the Florida governorship for a second term, Biden may not want to hasten the point at which he becomes a lame-duck president with almost two years left to go. This is especially true on the eve of a major fight with congressional Republicans over raising the debt ceiling.
The assumption remains that Biden will run. But until he makes it official, doubts will persist and possibly intensify.