With some polls showing former President Donald Trump down 5% in support from seniors, President Joe Biden could have an opening to up his game with a traditionally Republican voting bloc.
The Wall Street Journal’s national and swing-state polls have Trump pulling in 46% of senior voters, down from 51% in 2020. The latest polling data comes as the Biden campaign steps up outreach to older voters. In swing states across the country, Biden volunteers are organizing bingo games and pickleball events, while the campaign is running ads during shows favored by older voters such as the Price is Right.
Matt Grossmann, the director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University, told the newspaper he thinks “one hypothesis for why older voters look more likely to support Biden may be that older voters are less concerned about Biden’s age.”
At 81 years old, concerns about Biden’s cognitive health have intensified. In March 2024, a report from special counsel Robert Hur stated he found the president’s memory “fuzzy,” “hazy,” and “poor.” According to the report, Biden was unable to remember basic life events, such as when his son Beau died or when he served as vice president. The White House has refused to release a cognitive health summary, stating that the president is “active” and “robust.”
Republicans have carried seniors in every presidential election since 2000. While it’s not clear Democrats can move the needle with older voters significantly, even minor shifts could change the game in states such as Wisconsin. The swing state is home to more than 1 million seniors, including nearly 20% of the state’s residents. In 2020, Joe Biden flipped the state blue by only 20,000 votes. According to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, Trump is leading Joe Biden 47% to 46% in the state.
Trump’s performance among senior voters could stem from his mixed messaging on key issues such as Social Security and Medicare.
In March, the former president launched a media firestorm when he told CNBC that “there’s a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting.” Trump later backtracked, saying he would never “jeopardize or hurt Social Security and Medicare.”
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At a Detroit rally last Saturday, Trump reiterated his support for the entitlement programs. “I will always protect Medicare and Social Security for our great seniors. And you know, your Social Security and Medicare are under siege because of the people coming over the border.”
At an Arizona rally on June 6, Trump sounded a similar note. “We’re going to save your social security,” the former president told roaring crowds. “Biden is putting your Social Security at risk by allowing all of these people to pour into our country. It’s a big risk, and we’re not going to stand for that. … With me, your Social Security is 100% safe.”