In his economic desperation, President Joe Biden wants credit for bringing down inflation that is still increasing at twice the acceptable rate.

Politically, Biden’s desire is understandable: his approval ratings are bad and his poll numbers on the economy are worse. However, economically, Biden’s claim is preposterous: there is a direct line from his overheated spending to America’s inflation conflagration.

Last week, Biden had the chutzpah to celebrate his inflation performance : “This morning’s report shows core inflation fell to its lowest level in two years.”

To hear him tell it, this helped demonstrate “Bidenomics in action.” In reality, Biden’s attempt to pat himself on the back is like an arsonist claiming credit for the fire he started once it starts to cool down.

First, Biden’s “ core inflation ” measure excludes price changes in food and energy — the exact items where people are feeling inflation’s effects most.

Second, overall inflation was up 3.7% in September. Not only was this above what experts expected , it is the same rate of increase as August’s, both of which were higher than June (3.0%) and July’s (3.2%). In other words, inflation is still increasing, and at a faster rate than earlier this summer.

Thirdly, inflation’s September rate is still roughly double what the Federal Reserve is seeking .

Biden’s claim that inflation is at the “lowest level in two years” conveniently avoids the fact that he was still president two years ago. He is deceptively trying to hide three years of failure by statistically slicing and dicing. Indeed, inflation took off almost immediately after he took office.

What has happened on Biden’s economic watch could not be clearer: Biden spiked spending, spending helped fuel inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and the only thing preventing Biden from spending more has been Republicans in Congress and a few holdouts in his own party.

The spending part of the story is straightforward. In 2019, federal spending was $4.4 trillion; in 2020 and during COVID, it surged 50% to $6.6 trillion. In Biden’s first year in office, it increased again to $6.8 trillion. Last year, it eased to $6.3 trillion, and according to the Congressional Budget Office’s estimates for fiscal 2023 , spending is at $6.1 trillion for this year. That is still 39% above its pre-COVID levels and just 8% below the COVID spending surge in 2020 that sent the deficit up $300 billion.

Inflation followed Biden’s spending. Inflation remained stable during COVID’s 2020 spending surge, coming in at just a 1.2% annual rate that year. Inflation began rising in 2021 as Biden kept spending. In March 2021, inflation hit 2.6% — double the previous year’s level. In June, it was 5.4%; by December it was 7%. It continued climbing in 2022, hitting 7.5% in January, 8.5% in March, and peaking at 9.1% in June.

By March 2022, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates aggressively in response to Biden’s inflationary fire. It has gone on to do so 10 more times over the past 17 months , taking rates from effectively zero to 5.3% — the highest level since 2001.

If anyone deserves credit for inflation falling from Biden’s stratospheric levels, it is the Fed for raising interest rates aggressively and Republicans in Congress for opposing further Biden spending increases.

Of course, Biden cannot admit that, but his comments last week also make it clear that he does not even understand how inflation works. Slowing the rate of price growth to twice the acceptable rate does not undo the price increases that have already occurred throughout his administration. All that last week’s data told us is that inflation is still too high — but just getting higher at a slower rate than before. There is nothing to celebrate in that.

Even if Biden doesn’t get this, the public does. He’s spent big and left people to pick up the tab, which is why his poll numbers are what they are.

What Biden’s inflation celebration proves is that it is hard to fix a problem you do not understand. And it is even harder when you are the cause of it.

J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.