The United States will bring in 8.7 million more immigrants from 2021 to 2026 because of the surge at the border, according to a new projection by the Congressional Budget Office.
The CBO, the nonpartisan congressional scorekeeper, on Tuesday issued updated projections relating to the border surge as part of a regular release on budget and economic figures. The analysis shows that the massive increase in immigration, largely from people crossing the southern border, has added millions of more residents to the country. The budget office said that the additional immigration is translating to greater economic output, as well as more government taxation and spending.
The projection is notable given how immigration, particularly illegal immigration, has been a key issue for voters. In a critical election year, President Joe Biden is facing scrutiny for his border policy, with Republicans panning him as soft on border security.
For reference, that 8.7 million number is larger than the total population of states like Virginia, Arizona, Massachusetts, Tennessee, and Indiana, according to the Census Bureau. In fact, the 8.7 million increase in immigration is more than the population of all but 11 of the country’s largest states.
The CBO said it arrived its estimate by comparing the levels of immigration seen in recent years to what would be expected based on historical norms. The analysis builds on a report the CBO issued earlier this year, in which it examined data from the Department of Homeland Security about border crossing to update population estimates. That report has been credited by economists as revealing that the high levels of immigration have been helping to buoy job creation.
The increase in immigration has some major economic implications. The CBO said that, compared to its baseline, the surge will increase nominal gross domestic product by a total of $8.9 trillion, or 2.4%, over the next decade.
Additionally, the increase in people coming over the border is expected to cause interest rates to be about a tenth higher in 2034 than they otherwise would be.
“Those increases in GDP and interest rates are key drivers of projected increases in federal revenues and spending related to the surge,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel said in a statement.
The rise in immigration means that government tax revenue is expected to increase by $1.2 trillion more than would be expected over the next decade, according to the CBO. That would lower deficits by a net total of just under $1 trillion through 2034. But spending for mandatory programs and net spending for interest on the national debt will be $300 billion higher because of the immigration.
The Tuesday data release also increased projections of the overall budget deficit for this year. The CBO now predicts that the deficit will be $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2024, up from a February projection of $1.6 trillion. The 2024 deficit will equal 7% of the country’s GDP.
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Federal debt is also set to grow over the coming 10 years, with debt held by the public predicted to rise from 99% of GDP this year to a whopping 122% of GDP by 2034.
The data are another stark reminder that the U.S. is staring down a fiscal crisis that threatens the stability of popular government spending programs like Social Security and Medicare in the coming years.